PENNER STRATEGYResearch and analysis

WASHINGTON ELECTIONS

Late rejection was more common among mailed ballots in Washington’s primary

Ballots recorded as returned by mail were much more likely to be rejected as late than ballots recorded as returned through a drop box in Washington’s August 4, 2026 primary. The difference appeared across nearly every county.

Joshua Penner · September 11, 2026 August 4 primary · Final ballot records dated August 25

Mail requires an Election Day postmark; drop boxes close that evening

Washington requires mailed ballots to have an Election Day postmark. A ballot can arrive after Election Day and still count if it was postmarked on time. Drop boxes close at 8 p.m. on Election Day.

In the final August 25 ballot-status snapshot, 19,111 of 591,239 returns in the Mail category were marked Too Late, a rate of 3.23%. For Drop Box returns, 1,055 of 1,316,978 were marked Too Late, or 0.08%. The mail rate was 40.4 times the drop-box rate. Every record marked Too Late was also marked Rejected.

August 2026 primary: 19,111 of 591,239 mail returns were rejected as too late, 3.23%; 1,055 of 1,316,978 drop-box returns, 0.08%.
Rates among ballots recorded under each return method. Source: Washington Secretary of State.

These figures describe recorded outcomes. They do not establish when voters mailed their ballots, why a ballot was late, or whether choosing a different return method would have changed its outcome.

August 2026 primary, statewide
Return methodReturnedToo lateRate
Mail591,23919,1113.23%
Drop Box1,316,9781,0550.08%

Washington Secretary of State ballot-status report · Washington Secretary of State ballot return deadlines

Mail had higher late-rejection rates in 38 counties

Ferry County had no late records in either category. In every other county, the mail late-rejection rate exceeded the drop-box rate. The statewide difference was therefore not confined to a few counties.

Map of county mail late rates
County averages, exact Mail category. Boundaries: U.S. Census Bureau, 2024. Figure data (CSV) · Calculation and chart code · SVG chart
Mail and drop-box late rates by county
All 39 counties. Points above the diagonal have a higher Mail late rate. Figure data (CSV) · Calculation and chart code · SVG chart
All county counts and rates
August 2026 primary; all counties
CountyMail returnedMail lateMail late %Box returnedBox lateBox late %
Adams938576.081,57400.00
Asotin2,0841115.334,30800.00
Benton12,5707606.0534,926250.07
Chelan7,5464475.9216,983170.10
Clallam6,0932714.4521,18480.04
Clark44,6206491.4594,381560.06
Columbia33982.3695300.00
Cowlitz8,4692052.4219,023160.08
Douglas3,2161785.537,61100.00
Ferry1,28000.0058100.00
Franklin4,7603707.778,91620.02
Garfield239197.9578200.00
Grant6,6773415.1110,87800.00
Grays Harbor6,1291352.2012,25700.00
Island7,6042433.2023,04500.00
Jefferson5,755831.4410,18400.00
King159,22231091.95377,4394880.13
Kitsap19,7564672.3665,266810.12
Kittitas2,9641826.149,81930.03
Klickitat1,892904.765,92320.03
Lewis10,0726836.7815,55420.01
Lincoln2,669301.121,04900.00
Mason6,1712534.1014,12010.01
Okanogan5,5443336.016,71900.00
Pacific3,6331283.525,79700.00
Pend Oreille2,2121325.972,51900.00
Pierce55,16911202.03127,02200.00
San Juan2,154924.274,93600.00
Skagit10,4926215.9225,014150.06
Skamania1,029121.173,13900.00
Snohomish53,87828865.36132,1331750.13
Spokane62,32311881.9185,8401330.15
Stevens7,9935917.396,10080.13
Thurston19,7954272.1666,30900.00
Wahkiakum705101.421,11900.00
Walla Walla4,7103377.1511,590100.09
Whatcom17,2386053.5156,07980.01
Whitman3,9911944.865,04300.00
Yakima19,30817449.0320,86350.02

Washington Secretary of State ballot-status report · U.S. Census Bureau 2024 county boundaries

Nearly one in four qualifying precincts had mail late-rejection rates of at least 5%

The comparison includes 7,132 precincts with at least 25 Mail returns. Of those, 1,694, or 23.8%, met that rate. In 536 precincts, at least one in ten mailed returns was rejected as late.

Precinct distribution of recorded mail late rates
County and precinct name form the key. Case variants are combined. All counties are included. Figure data (CSV) · Calculation and chart code · SVG chart

Washington Secretary of State ballot-status report

The precinct pattern remained visible across minimum return counts

Changing the minimum number of Mail returns changes which precincts qualify. Across cutoffs ranging from 10 to 200 returns, roughly one-fifth to one-quarter of qualifying precincts had mail late-rejection rates of at least 5%. The strictest cutoff leaves only 240 precincts and describes a much narrower group.

Share of precincts above 5 percent under different minimum return cutoffs
Higher cutoffs remove small precincts. The comparison recalculates both numerator and denominator. Figure data (CSV) · Calculation and chart code · SVG chart

Washington Secretary of State ballot-status report

Snohomish County’s mail late-rejection rates differed by ZIP prefix

Combining Mail and Non Standard Mail returns, Snohomish voters with 980xx ZIP codes had a late-rejection rate of 1.57%, compared with 7.37% for those with 982xx ZIP codes. That is a 4.71-fold difference. Signature-related rates were similar, at 0.29% and 0.26%, respectively.

The signature measure includes mismatched signatures, unsigned ballots, no signature on file and missing witness signatures. Voter ZIP prefixes do not establish postal routing, voter behavior or the cause of the difference.

Snohomish 980xx and 982xx late and signature rejection rates
Postal returns here combine Mail and Non-Standard Mail, following the original geographic analysis. Figure data (CSV) · Calculation and chart code · SVG chart

Washington Secretary of State ballot-status report

Separate context: ballots in the November 2024 election

A federal election survey recorded 971,342 Washington ballots as unreturned and 25,861 as returned undeliverable. Unreturned ballots include people who chose not to vote, so that category is not a count of attempted votes. An undeliverable ballot does not establish whether its voter later obtained a replacement. These figures concern a different election and different measures; they are not evidence for the primary’s mail and drop-box comparison.

EAVS 2024 Washington ballot disposition totals
2024 general election. This is a separate election from the 2026 primary above. Figure data (CSV) · Calculation and chart code · SVG chart

Election Assistance Commission 2024 EAVS, version 2 · EAVS codebook

Rates use returned ballots in each category

Statewide comparisons include all counties and use the exact Mail and Drop Box categories. Each rate divides late rejections by returned ballots in that category. Other return methods are separate, except in the stated Snohomish comparison.

Washington Secretary of State ballot-status report

Data and calculations

Download the complete analysis package

Seven charts, their data tables, the original headline script, supporting calculation code and source hashes. The voter-level source file is retrieved from the Secretary of State rather than redistributed in this download.

Reproduction instructions and source definitions · Earlier publication (source record)

Corrections or questions: josh@pennerstrategy.com