{ "schema_version": "penner-question-garden-1", "scope": "Public navigation over the published school edition, existing public findings, and the reviewed income research handoff. Private working records are not included.", "generated_at": "2026-09-25T01:25:44.988Z", "collections": [ { "id": "q-wa-school-spending", "question": "How much did Washington public-school spending per enrollment unit change between 2021-22 and 2024-25, and how much of that change is inflation?", "edition": "0002", "url": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-school-spending/editions/0002/", "published_at": "2026-09-12T17:00:00Z", "source_release_sha256": "d27aa7c29adcc804fa1b7e09d90321134bad4fbcdeb0ee3beff6363d47b8235c", "json": "/research/school-spending/0002/release.json", "html": "/research/school-spending/0002/" }, { "id": "washington-income", "title": "Washington income", "as_of_date": "2026-09-21", "period": "TY2022-TY2023 historical comparison; distinct context through 2026 Q1", "html": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/index.html", "json": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/record.json", "sources": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/sources/index.html" }, { "id": "q-wa31-vote-composition", "question": "Where have the recorded votes in Washington's 31st Legislative District come from since 2010, and how do its primary and general vote totals compare?", "edition": "0001", "url": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/wa-31st-district-vote-composition/editions/0001/", "published_at": "2026-09-12T18:00:00Z", "source_release_sha256": "de86243e31d678a65ac0fa91d22e1b755f8ea9ca4055194c814f9f9b318d6914", "json": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/wa-31st-district-vote-composition/editions/0001/release.json", "html": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/wa-31st-district-vote-composition/editions/0001/" }, { "id": "q-wa-late-ballots", "question": "How often are Washington mail ballots rejected for arriving late, and what do the records show about the increase reported between the August 2024 and August 2026 primaries?", "edition": "0001", "url": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-late-ballots/editions/0001/", "published_at": "2026-09-12T18:00:00Z", "source_release_sha256": "1828cd07e3595acb35764e1cdc16ec43eccc97223124cb6f58d550e4bc5a6539", "json": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-late-ballots/editions/0001/release.json", "html": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-late-ballots/editions/0001/" }, { "id": "q-wa-ospi-supplemental-budget", "question": "What did OSPI request in its 2026 supplemental budget submissions, and what did the enacted 2026 supplemental operating and capital budgets appropriate against those requests?", "edition": "0001", "url": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/ospi-supplemental-budget-requests/editions/0001/", "published_at": "2026-09-12T18:00:00Z", "source_release_sha256": "c069d7d73135f617af0b9e98fbafe7bc99677a2a92ae468b15f0ec9484373e5e", "json": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/ospi-supplemental-budget-requests/editions/0001/release.json", "html": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/ospi-supplemental-budget-requests/editions/0001/" }, { "id": "washington-income-2026-09-14", "title": "Washington income: $1 million returns and dividends", "as_of_date": "2026-09-14", "period": "Tax years 2019-2023; IRS migration filing years 2022-2023", "html": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/index.html", "json": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/collection.json", "sources": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/sources/index.html" }, { "id": "public-sources-2026-09-26", "title": "Questions answered from public source files", "as_of_date": "2026-09-26", "json": "/research/garden-data/2026-09-26/manifest.json" } ], "entry_paths": [ { "id": "school-spending", "title": "School spending", "description": "How much changed, and what changes the answer.", "period": "Through school year 2024–25", "children": [ "inflation", "districts", "adequacy" ], "url": "/#school-spending" }, { "id": "washington-income", "title": "Washington income", "description": "Million-dollar incomes, dividends, people moving and newer figures.", "period": "TY2022-TY2023 historical comparison; distinct context through 2026 Q1", "children": [ "income-million-root" ], "url": "/#washington-income" }, { "id": "ballot-returns", "title": "Ballot returns", "description": "Return methods and ballots that did not count.", "period": "General elections 2018-2024 · August primaries 2024 and 2026", "children": [ "ballots", "ballots-eavs-rates" ], "url": "/#ballot-returns" }, { "id": "school-budgets", "title": "School budgets", "description": "What was requested. What was approved.", "period": "2026 supplemental budget", "children": [ "operating", "capital" ], "url": "/#school-budgets" }, { "id": "wa31-votes", "title": "31st District votes", "description": "How primary and general vote totals compare.", "period": "2010-2024 elections · August 2026 primary", "children": [ "wa31-primary-ratio" ], "url": "/#wa31-votes" }, { "id": "local-taxes", "title": "Local taxes", "description": "State tables of local sales and use tax distributions.", "period": "Calendar years 2020 and 2021", "children": [ "dor-table-s2-2021" ], "url": "/#local-taxes" } ], "exploration_nodes": [ { "id": "inflation", "question": "Did Washington school spending per enrollment unit keep up with inflation from 2021–22 to 2024–25?", "context": "2021–22 to 2024–25 · Spending adjusted for enrollment", "answer": "Washington school districts and tribal compact schools spent 12.5% more on school operations per enrollment unit in 2024–25 than in 2021–22. After adjusting for U.S. consumer prices, the increase was just 0.8%. Using Seattle-area prices, it was a 1.5% decline.", "answer_heading": "School spending rose. After inflation, little changed.", "period": "2021–22 to 2024–25", "qualification": "Consumer prices measure household purchases, not what schools actually pay. This comparison cannot tell us whether schools have enough money.", "status": "published_finding_summary", "reader_url": "/#question-inflation", "scope": "schools", "source_collection": "q-wa-school-spending", "published_source": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-school-spending/editions/0002/", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "f-nominal-growth", "f-inflation-adjusted" ], "canonical_citations": [ "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-school-spending/editions/0002/findings/f-nominal-growth/", "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-school-spending/editions/0002/findings/f-inflation-adjusted/" ], "connections": [ { "to": "relief", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "baseline", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "programs", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "enrollment", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "schoolCosts", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "adequacy", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "operating", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "relief", "question": "Did Washington school spending per enrollment unit grow after inflation from 2021–22 to 2024–25 when six pandemic relief programs are excluded?", "context": "Washington schools · 2021–22 to 2024–25", "answer": "Spending through six selected relief programs fell from about $1.02 billion to $3.49 million. Set those programs aside in both years, and the remaining spending per enrollment unit rose 6.6% after U.S. inflation, or 4.2% after Seattle-area inflation.", "answer_heading": "Outside six pandemic programs, spending rose faster than inflation.", "period": "2021–22 to 2024–25", "qualification": "This is spending outside six selected programs. It does not establish that all recurring funding rose by that amount.", "status": "published_finding_summary", "reader_url": "/#question-relief", "scope": "schools", "source_collection": "q-wa-school-spending", "published_source": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-school-spending/editions/0002/", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "f-relief-exclusion", "f-program-mix" ], "canonical_citations": [ "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-school-spending/editions/0002/findings/f-relief-exclusion/", "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-school-spending/editions/0002/findings/f-program-mix/" ], "connections": [ { "to": "baseline", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "adequacy", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "baseline", "question": "How does Washington’s inflation-adjusted school spending change when 2024–25 is compared with 2018–19, 2019–20 or 2021–22?", "context": "Washington schools · Three starting years, ending in 2024–25", "answer": "Compared with 2018–19, school operating spending per enrollment unit was 8.3% higher after U.S. inflation. Compared with 2021–22, it was just 0.8% higher. Both comparisons end in 2024–25.", "answer_heading": "Yes. Start before the pandemic, and the increase is larger.", "period": "2018–19, 2019–20 or 2021–22 to 2024–25", "qualification": "These are total changes over different lengths of time, not annual growth rates. They include pandemic relief and do not show what happened in each intervening year.", "status": "published_finding_summary", "reader_url": "/#question-baseline", "scope": "schools", "source_collection": "q-wa-school-spending", "published_source": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-school-spending/editions/0002/", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "f-base-year-window" ], "canonical_citations": [ "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-school-spending/editions/0002/findings/f-base-year-window/" ], "connections": [ { "to": "intervening", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "relief", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "adequacy", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "adequacy", "question": "Can Washington school-spending comparisons ending in 2024–25 establish whether funding meets students’ needs?", "context": "Washington · Spending comparisons ending in 2024–25", "answer": "We can measure changes in spending. To say whether it is sufficient, we would also need to define the services students need and what those services cost. This study does not do that.", "answer_heading": "These figures cannot tell us whether school funding is enough.", "period": "Scope of the school-spending study", "qualification": "A spending increase is not proof of adequate funding. A decline is not, by itself, a measure of unmet need.", "status": "unanswered_in_this_edition", "reader_url": "/#question-adequacy", "scope": "schools", "source_collection": "q-wa-school-spending", "published_source": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-school-spending/editions/0002/", "canonical_finding_ids": [], "canonical_citations": [ "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-school-spending/editions/0002/" ], "connections": [ { "to": "inflation", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "ballots", "question": "In Washington’s August 2026 primary, were mailed ballots more likely than drop-box ballots to be rejected as late?", "context": "Washington’s August 2026 primary", "answer": "For every 1,000 ballots returned by mail, 32.3 were marked “Too Late.” For drop-box returns, the figure was 0.8. These are Washington’s August 2026 primary results in the August 25 snapshot.", "answer_heading": "Yes. Mailed ballots were much more often rejected as late.", "period": "August 2026 primary · August 25 snapshot", "qualification": "The data do not show when voters mailed their ballots or why individual ballots were late. Other rejection reasons are excluded.", "status": "published_finding_summary", "reader_url": "/#question-ballots", "scope": "ballots", "source_collection": "ballots", "published_source": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-late-ballots/articles/late-ballots-return-channels/", "canonical_finding_ids": [], "canonical_citations": [ "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-late-ballots/articles/late-ballots-return-channels/" ], "connections": [ { "to": "ballots-too-late-rule", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "ballots-snapshot-totals", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "ballots-distance", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "ballots-primary-2024-2026", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "operating", "question": "How much additional school operating funding did Washington’s education agency request in the 2026 supplemental process for the 2025–27 budget?", "context": "Washington · 2026 supplemental requests for 2025–27", "answer": "Seven supplemental requests for the 2025–27 operating budget total $139,465,000. The largest request, $111,527,000, was for materials, supplies and operating costs.", "answer_heading": "The state education agency requested $139.5 million.", "period": "2026 supplemental requests · 2025–27 budget", "qualification": "Requested money is not approved funding or the full education budget.", "status": "published_finding_summary", "reader_url": "/#question-operating", "scope": "operating", "source_collection": "operating", "published_source": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/ospi-supplemental-budget-requests/articles/ospi-operating-requests/", "canonical_finding_ids": [], "canonical_citations": [ "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/ospi-supplemental-budget-requests/articles/ospi-operating-requests/" ], "connections": [ { "to": "ospi-operating-enacted", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "capital", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "inflation", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "capital", "question": "How much additional funding did three Washington school-building programs receive in the 2026 supplemental budget for 2025–27?", "context": "Washington · 2026 supplemental budget for 2025–27", "answer": "The 2026 supplemental budget approved $87,506,000 in additional funding for three capital programs. Small-district modernization received $71,106,000 of that increase.", "answer_heading": "Three school-building programs received an $87.5 million increase.", "period": "2026 supplemental budget · 2025–27", "qualification": "These are approved budget increases for 2025–27, not money already spent or the entire school capital budget.", "status": "published_finding_summary", "reader_url": "/#question-capital", "scope": "capital", "source_collection": "capital", "published_source": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/ospi-supplemental-budget-requests/articles/ospi-capital-requests/", "canonical_finding_ids": [], "canonical_citations": [ "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/ospi-supplemental-budget-requests/articles/ospi-capital-requests/" ], "connections": [ { "to": "ospi-sdm-matching", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "ospi-seismic-projects", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "operating", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "programs", "question": "Which Washington school programs had the largest spending changes per enrollment unit from 2021–22 to 2024–25?", "context": "Washington · Per enrollment unit, 2021–22 to 2024–25", "answer": "Per enrollment unit, Basic Education spending rose $978 and state special education rose $809. Districtwide support rose $397. The biggest declines were in pandemic relief programs.", "answer_heading": "Basic Education and state special education had the biggest increases.", "period": "2021–22 to 2024–25", "qualification": "These are selected programs, so their bars do not add up to the full statewide change. Amounts are not adjusted for inflation.", "status": "published_finding_summary", "reader_url": "/#question-programs", "scope": "schools", "source_collection": "q-wa-school-spending", "published_source": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-school-spending/editions/0002/", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "f-program-mix" ], "canonical_citations": [ "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-school-spending/editions/0002/findings/f-program-mix/" ], "connections": [ { "to": "relief", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "adequacy", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "enrollment", "question": "What does OSPI’s enrollment measure count in the Washington school-spending comparison of 2021–22 and 2024–25?", "context": "Washington school financial summaries · 2021–22 and 2024–25", "answer": "OSPI’s financial summaries mostly count enrollment in full-time equivalents, so a part-time student can count as less than one. Some programs instead use headcounts, including special education for children from birth to age five.", "answer_heading": "No. The denominator is not simply a count of children.", "period": "Definition used in this study", "qualification": "Every spending-per-unit figure here uses that same combined measure. It should not be read as the amount spent on each individual child.", "status": "published_finding_summary", "reader_url": "/#question-enrollment", "scope": "schools", "source_collection": "q-wa-school-spending", "published_source": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-school-spending/editions/0002/", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "f-enrollment-measure" ], "canonical_citations": [ "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-school-spending/editions/0002/findings/f-enrollment-measure/" ], "connections": [ { "to": "inflation", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "districts", "question": "Did individual Washington school districts follow the statewide spending trend from 2021–22 to 2024–25?", "context": "Washington schools · 2021–22 to 2024–25", "answer": "This published study combines school systems across Washington. A nearly flat statewide result could coexist with increases in some districts and decreases in others. This edition does not establish that distribution.", "answer_heading": "The statewide result does not tell us what happened in your district.", "period": "Open in edition 0002 · September 12, 2026", "qualification": "A district-level comparison is still needed before drawing a local conclusion.", "status": "unanswered_in_this_edition", "reader_url": "/#question-districts", "scope": "schools", "source_collection": "q-wa-school-spending", "published_source": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-school-spending/editions/0002/", "canonical_finding_ids": [], "canonical_citations": [ "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-school-spending/editions/0002/" ], "connections": [ { "to": "districts-spending-change", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "inflation", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "schoolCosts", "question": "Would Washington’s 2021–22 to 2024–25 school-spending comparison change if it used school costs instead of consumer prices?", "context": "Washington school spending · 2021–22 to 2024–25", "answer": "This study compares spending with consumer prices. It does not measure the changing cost of teachers, other staff, school materials and services as a separate basket.", "answer_heading": "Schools’ own cost increases could change the answer.", "period": "Open in edition 0002 · September 12, 2026", "qualification": "We do not yet have a school-specific cost comparison in this published edition.", "status": "unanswered_in_this_edition", "reader_url": "/#question-schoolCosts", "scope": "schools", "source_collection": "q-wa-school-spending", "published_source": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-school-spending/editions/0002/", "canonical_finding_ids": [], "canonical_citations": [ "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-school-spending/editions/0002/" ], "connections": [ { "to": "inflation", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "adequacy", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "intervening", "question": "How did Washington school spending change year by year between 2018–19 and 2024–25?", "context": "Washington · Between the 2018–19 and 2024–25 endpoints", "answer": "The figures compare selected starting years with 2024–25. They do not show whether spending rose steadily, spiked temporarily or fell before recovering.", "answer_heading": "The endpoint comparison leaves the years between unanswered.", "period": "Open in edition 0002 · September 12, 2026", "qualification": "An annual series is needed to answer that question. No such path is established in this edition.", "status": "unanswered_in_this_edition", "reader_url": "/#question-intervening", "scope": "schools", "source_collection": "q-wa-school-spending", "published_source": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-school-spending/editions/0002/", "canonical_finding_ids": [], "canonical_citations": [ "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-school-spending/editions/0002/" ], "connections": [ { "to": "baseline", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "income-root", "question": "Why did reported qualified dividends fall from 2022 to 2023 among King County tax returns with at least $200,000 in adjusted gross income?", "context": "Tax years 2022–23 · Returns with $200,000+ in income", "answer": "King County tax returns with at least $200,000 in adjusted gross income, the income figure used to group these returns, reported 16.2% less in qualified dividends in 2023 than in 2022. The work so far has not shown whether moving, changing investments, payouts or reporting explains the decline.", "answer_heading": "The dividend decline is clear. Its cause is still unknown.", "period": "Historical IRS comparisons: TY2022-TY2023; separate context through 2026 Q1", "qualification": "These yearly totals do not follow the same people. They do not establish a tax-policy effect.", "status": "unanswered", "reader_url": "/#question-income-root", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "washington-income", "published_source": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-root/index.html", "record_json": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-root/record.json", "canonical_finding_ids": [], "canonical_citations": [ "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-root/index.html" ], "plots": [], "connections": [ { "to": "income-historical-dividends", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-migration", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-newer-context", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "income-historical-dividends", "question": "How did King County’s qualified dividends change from 2022 to 2023 in the $200,000-plus income group, compared with the same group nationwide?", "context": "2022 versus 2023 · $200,000+ income group, compared with the U.S.", "answer": "The reported amount fell from $6.3 billion in tax year 2022 to $5.3 billion in 2023, even as the number of returns reporting qualified dividends rose about 9.9%. These returns reported at least $200,000 in adjusted gross income, the income figure used for the comparison. Nationally, qualified dividends in the same income group rose 9.1%.", "answer_heading": "Qualified dividends fell 16.2% in King County’s $200,000-plus group.", "period": "Tax years 2022 and 2023", "qualification": "The annual groups can contain different people. Qualified dividends are part of ordinary dividends, so the two amounts must not be added together. The cause remains unknown.", "status": "reviewed", "reader_url": "/#question-income-historical-dividends", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "washington-income", "published_source": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-historical-dividends/index.html", "record_json": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-historical-dividends/record.json", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "income-finding-qualified-decline", "income-finding-national-comparison" ], "canonical_citations": [ "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-historical-dividends/index.html" ], "plots": [], "connections": [ { "to": "income-ordinary-counts", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-followup-accounting", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-migration", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-exact-persistence", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "income-ordinary-counts", "question": "How did the number of King County returns reporting ordinary dividends, and the average amount per return, change from 2022 to 2023 across all income groups?", "context": "King County · All income groups, tax years 2022–23", "answer": "Across all King County income groups, ordinary dividends rose only 0.06% from 2022 to 2023. The number of returns reporting them grew from 413,260 to 428,570, up 3.7%. Dividing the nearly unchanged total by the larger return count gives a 3.5% fall in the average amount per reporting return.", "answer_heading": "Almost the same ordinary-dividend total was spread across more returns.", "period": "Tax years 2022 and 2023", "qualification": "This explains the arithmetic, not who changed or why. It is a different comparison from qualified dividends in the $200,000-plus group.", "status": "reviewed", "reader_url": "/#question-income-ordinary-counts", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "washington-income", "published_source": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-ordinary-counts/index.html", "record_json": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-ordinary-counts/record.json", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "income-finding-ordinary-ratio" ], "canonical_citations": [ "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-ordinary-counts/index.html" ], "plots": [], "connections": [ { "to": "income-historical-dividends", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "income-migration", "question": "Can the IRS’s 2022–2023 filing-address comparison explain King County’s qualified-dividend decline between tax years 2022 and 2023?", "context": "Dividend change in 2022–23 · Earlier IRS address-change evidence", "answer": "In the IRS’s 2022-2023 address comparison, Washington’s $200,000-plus income group had 2,057 more outgoing than incoming tax returns. California was the largest single interstate destination recorded for King County, with 8,477 named returns. Neither result tells us how much of the dividend decline came from moving.", "answer_heading": "The migration records describe address changes, but do not explain the dividend decline.", "period": "Calendar-year filing transition 2022-2023", "qualification": "The income groups use the second return’s income. The address comparison covers an earlier period than the dividend change, and total income is not dividend income.", "status": "reviewed", "reader_url": "/#question-income-migration", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "washington-income", "published_source": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-migration/index.html", "record_json": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-migration/record.json", "canonical_finding_ids": [], "canonical_citations": [ "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-migration/index.html" ], "plots": [], "connections": [ { "to": "income-migration-classes", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-migration-destinations", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-followup-migration", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-historical-dividends", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "income-migration-classes", "question": "In the IRS's 2022 to 2023 address comparison, which income groups had more tax returns leaving Washington than arriving, measured by income on the later year's return?", "context": "IRS 2022 to 2023 address comparison · Income on the later year's return", "answer": "The IRS counted 12,518 outgoing and 10,461 incoming Washington returns in this group for its 2022-2023 address comparison. It was the only one of seven income groups with more outgoing than incoming returns. The group is defined by income on the later year's return, after the recorded address change.", "answer_heading": "Only the $200,000-plus group had more returns leaving than arriving, by 2,057.", "period": "IRS filing years 2022 and 2023", "qualification": "A tax return is not a person. The chart does not show a fixed group of wealthy Washington residents or dollars proven to have left the state.", "status": "reviewed", "reader_url": "/#question-income-migration-classes", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "washington-income", "published_source": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-migration-classes/index.html", "record_json": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-migration-classes/record.json", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "income-finding-agi-class-balance" ], "canonical_citations": [ "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-migration-classes/index.html" ], "plots": [ "income-plot-wa-migration" ], "connections": [ { "to": "income-migration-destinations", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-followup-migration", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "income-migration-destinations", "question": "Which states were destinations for tax returns leaving King County in the IRS’s 2022–2023 filing-address comparison?", "context": "IRS 2022–2023 address comparison · Interstate destinations", "answer": "The IRS file names 8,477 returns moving from a King County address to California in its 2022-2023 comparison. California stays the largest single destination even after allowing for destinations hidden in regional totals. Nevada, Florida and Texas have 5,459 identified returns combined, but the hidden destinations prevent a definitive comparison of their combined total with California.", "answer_heading": "California was King County’s largest single interstate destination.", "period": "Calendar-year filing transition 2022-2023", "qualification": "These are tax-return address changes, not counts of people or evidence of tax motives. Regional totals cannot be assigned to particular states.", "status": "reviewed", "reader_url": "/#question-income-migration-destinations", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "washington-income", "published_source": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-migration-destinations/index.html", "record_json": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-migration-destinations/record.json", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "income-finding-destinations" ], "canonical_citations": [ "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-migration-destinations/index.html" ], "plots": [ "income-plot-king-destinations" ], "connections": [ { "to": "income-migration-classes", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "income-newer-context", "question": "What do newer King County and Washington income measures for 2024 through early 2026 tell us after the 2022–2023 dividend decline?", "context": "King County and Washington · Distinct measures for 2024–early 2026", "answer": "The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates that Washington personal dividend income rose 4.7%, from $65.7 billion in 2023 to $68.8 billion in 2024. King County’s combined dividends, interest and rent rose 5.6% in 2024. These give a newer picture of broader income, but do not tell us whether the earlier King County qualified-dividend decline continued.", "answer_heading": "Newer measures rose, but do not settle what happened to the exact dividend measure.", "period": "Annual context through 2024/2025; quarterly context through 2026 Q1", "qualification": "The definitions differ from the IRS dividend measure. Quarterly amounts are annualized rates; survey totals have margins of error and use each year’s dollar basis.", "status": "reviewed", "reader_url": "/#question-income-newer-context", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "washington-income", "published_source": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-newer-context/index.html", "record_json": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-newer-context/record.json", "canonical_finding_ids": [], "canonical_citations": [ "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-newer-context/index.html" ], "plots": [ "income-plot-current-context" ], "connections": [ { "to": "income-state-context", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-county-context", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-household-context", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-exact-persistence", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-followup-purchasing-power", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-historical-dividends", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "income-state-context", "question": "How did Washington’s broader dividend estimate change from 2023 to 2024, and what does its combined dividends, interest and rent series show through early 2026?", "context": "Annual dividends through 2024 · Combined income through early 2026", "answer": "The Bureau of Economic Analysis puts statewide personal dividend income at $68.8 billion in 2024, up from $65.7 billion in 2023. Its newer quarterly measure combines dividends, interest and rent: it reached a $158.8 billion annual rate in the first quarter of 2026, 1.9% above a year earlier.", "answer_heading": "Washington’s broader dividend estimate rose 4.7% in 2024.", "period": "Annual dividends: 2023-2024; quarterly combined measure: 2026 Q1", "qualification": "The annual dividend definition is broader than the IRS measure. The quarterly figure combines three income sources and is an annualized rate, not one quarter’s receipts.", "status": "reviewed", "reader_url": "/#question-income-state-context", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "washington-income", "published_source": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-state-context/index.html", "record_json": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-state-context/record.json", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "income-finding-bea-state-dividends", "income-finding-bea-quarterly" ], "canonical_citations": [ "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-state-context/index.html" ], "plots": [ "income-plot-current-context" ], "connections": [ { "to": "income-county-context", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-household-context", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "income-county-context", "question": "Did King County’s combined dividends, interest and rent increase from 2023 to 2024 in the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates?", "context": "BEA county estimates · 2023 versus 2024", "answer": "The Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates $81.5 billion for these three income sources combined in King County in 2024. That is 5.6% above 2023. It is useful newer county evidence, but the published county total does not separate dividends from interest or rent.", "answer_heading": "King County’s combined dividends, interest and rent rose 5.6% in 2024.", "period": "Calendar years 2023 and 2024", "qualification": "This broader estimate cannot tell us whether King County ordinary or qualified dividends rose or fell after tax year 2023.", "status": "reviewed", "reader_url": "/#question-income-county-context", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "washington-income", "published_source": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-county-context/index.html", "record_json": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-county-context/record.json", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "income-finding-bea-county" ], "canonical_citations": [ "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-county-context/index.html" ], "plots": [], "connections": [ { "to": "income-state-context", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-household-context", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "income-household-context", "question": "Did household surveys show higher combined interest, dividends and net rental income in King County and Washington in 2024 than in 2023?", "context": "King County and Washington · 2023 versus 2024", "answer": "The American Community Survey estimates $11.0 billion in King County interest, dividends or net rental income in 2024, compared with $9.1 billion in 2023. The statewide estimates were $23.3 billion and $21.2 billion. The 2024 estimates have 90% margins of error of $1.1 billion for King County and $1.4 billion for Washington.", "answer_heading": "The household survey also shows higher combined-income estimates.", "period": "2023 and 2024 ACS one-year surveys", "qualification": "These totals combine three income sources. Each year uses its own dollar basis, so the difference is not an inflation-adjusted growth rate or a result for a typical household.", "status": "reviewed", "reader_url": "/#question-income-household-context", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "washington-income", "published_source": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-household-context/index.html", "record_json": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-household-context/record.json", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "income-finding-acs-amounts", "income-finding-acs-households" ], "canonical_citations": [ "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-household-context/index.html" ], "plots": [ "income-plot-current-context" ], "connections": [ { "to": "income-county-context", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-followup-purchasing-power", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "income-exact-persistence", "question": "Did the 2022–2023 qualified-dividend decline among King County’s $200,000-plus income group continue after tax year 2023?", "context": "Same IRS county measure · Latest-source check: September 2026", "answer": "As of the September 21, 2026 review, the comparable IRS county figures for ordinary and qualified dividends ended at tax year 2023. A newer release with the same definitions is needed to see whether King County’s decline continued or reversed.", "answer_heading": "We do not yet know whether the exact decline continued after 2023.", "period": "Evidence checked September 21, 2026", "qualification": "Newer economic estimates and household surveys use different measures and cannot answer this exact question.", "status": "unanswered", "reader_url": "/#question-income-exact-persistence", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "washington-income", "published_source": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-exact-persistence/index.html", "record_json": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-exact-persistence/record.json", "canonical_finding_ids": [], "canonical_citations": [ "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-exact-persistence/index.html" ], "plots": [], "connections": [ { "to": "income-historical-dividends", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-newer-context", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "income-followup-accounting", "question": "Would comparing ordinary and qualified dividends in the same King County income groups and tax years explain their apparent divergence from 2022 to 2023?", "context": "King County · Same income groups and tax years, 2022–23", "answer": "The next step would be to check the existing work and fill only missing comparisons for the same county, tax year and income group. That could show whether apparently different trends come from comparing different categories.", "answer_heading": "A consistent category comparison is proposed; no answer is established.", "period": "Proposed; not running", "qualification": "This investigation is proposed, not running. Qualified dividends are already part of ordinary dividends; mixing categories or income groups cannot prove money moved between them.", "status": "proposed", "reader_url": "/#question-income-followup-accounting", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "washington-income", "published_source": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-followup-accounting/index.html", "record_json": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-followup-accounting/record.json", "canonical_finding_ids": [], "canonical_citations": [ "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-followup-accounting/index.html" ], "plots": [], "connections": [ { "to": "income-ordinary-counts", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "income-followup-migration", "question": "Was the net outflow of Washington tax returns in the $200,000-plus income group, measured by income on the later year's return, in the IRS's 2022 to 2023 comparison also present in earlier periods?", "context": "$200,000+ income group · Compare earlier periods with 2022–2023", "answer": "The proposed follow-up would compare earlier periods after checking how the IRS matched returns across years. The current finding covers one 2022-2023 address comparison. As of September 21, 2026, the next 2023-2024 files were tentatively scheduled for November 20, 2026 and had not yet been published.", "answer_heading": "We have not established whether the migration imbalance persists.", "period": "Proposed; not running", "qualification": "This investigation is proposed, not running. A scheduled release is not a published dataset, and a migration trend would not by itself explain dividends or tax motives.", "status": "proposed", "reader_url": "/#question-income-followup-migration", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "washington-income", "published_source": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-followup-migration/index.html", "record_json": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-followup-migration/record.json", "canonical_finding_ids": [], "canonical_citations": [ "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-followup-migration/index.html" ], "plots": [], "connections": [ { "to": "income-migration-classes", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "income-followup-purchasing-power", "question": "Did the higher aggregate income estimates for King County and Washington from 2023 to 2024 correspond to greater purchasing power for typical households?", "context": "King County and Washington · Proposed follow-up to 2023–24 figures", "answer": "A proposed follow-up would examine population, inflation and how income is distributed across households. Without those comparisons, a larger county or state income total cannot tell us how purchasing power changed for a typical household.", "answer_heading": "Aggregate income growth does not tell us how a typical household is doing.", "period": "Proposed; not running", "qualification": "This is a separate proposed question, not a finding about household hardship or a demonstrated consequence of the dividend decline.", "status": "proposed", "reader_url": "/#question-income-followup-purchasing-power", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "washington-income", "published_source": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-followup-purchasing-power/index.html", "record_json": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-followup-purchasing-power/record.json", "canonical_finding_ids": [], "canonical_citations": [ "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-followup-purchasing-power/index.html" ], "plots": [], "connections": [ { "to": "income-household-context", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "wa31-primary-ratio", "question": "How did each race’s primary vote count compare with its general-election vote count in Washington’s 31st Legislative District from 2010 to 2024?", "context": "31st Legislative District · 18 races, 2010-2024", "answer": "In Washington’s 31st Legislative District, the primary drew fewer votes than the general election in all 18 legislative races counted from 2010 to 2024. Only votes for candidates listed by name are counted, with write-ins left out. Primary votes divided by general-election votes came to 0.39 at the lowest, 0.60 at the highest and 0.52 on average, so a typical primary drew about half as many votes as the general election. Races in years without a presidential election averaged 0.54, higher than the overall average. This is a ratio of raw vote counts, not a turnout rate.", "answer_heading": "In all 18 races counted, primaries drew fewer votes than general elections.", "period": "Elections 2010-2024 · 2012 missing", "qualification": "In the edition’s own words: “The primary-to-general ratio is a ratio of raw recorded vote counts, not a registered-voter turnout rate, so part of its variation reflects population change rather than turnout behavior.” This study has no registered-voter turnout rate for these races. 2012 is missing because its source file could not be retrieved: its web address returned a “not found” error.", "status": "published_finding_summary", "reader_url": "/#question-wa31-primary-ratio", "scope": "wa31", "source_collection": "q-wa31-vote-composition", "published_source": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/wa-31st-district-vote-composition/editions/0001/", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "f-primary-to-general-ratio" ], "canonical_citations": [ "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/wa-31st-district-vote-composition/editions/0001/findings/f-primary-to-general-ratio/" ], "connections": [ { "to": "wa31-primary-2026", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "wa31-primary-2026", "question": "How many votes, including write-ins, did each of the 31st Legislative District’s three contests record in Washington’s August 4, 2026 primary?", "context": "31st Legislative District · August 4, 2026 primary", "answer": "In Washington’s August 4, 2026 primary, the 31st Legislative District’s State Senate race drew 34,247 votes, House Position 1 drew 33,996 and House Position 2 drew 33,986, according to the Washington Secretary of State’s official statewide results file. All three totals include any write-in votes, so they are counted differently from the district’s earlier figures, which leave write-ins out. Each total counts votes in one race, so adding the three does not give a count of voters or ballots. This study was published in September 2026, before the November 2026 general election, so it has no general-election figures to compare them with.", "answer_heading": "Senate race: 34,247 votes. House races: 33,996 and 33,986.", "period": "August 4, 2026 primary · official statewide export", "qualification": "The state’s results file does not break the totals down by county, so this study cannot say how much of each total came from King or Pierce County. The file also records each candidate’s votes, which this study does not report, and the state may revise the file.", "status": "published_finding_summary", "reader_url": "/#question-wa31-primary-2026", "scope": "wa31", "source_collection": "q-wa31-vote-composition", "published_source": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/wa-31st-district-vote-composition/editions/0001/", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "f-primary-2026-counts" ], "canonical_citations": [ "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/wa-31st-district-vote-composition/editions/0001/findings/f-primary-2026-counts/" ], "connections": [] }, { "id": "ballots-too-late-rule", "question": "What made a mail ballot too late to count in Washington’s August 2026 primary under state law?", "context": "Washington · RCW 29A.40.110", "answer": "Under Washington law (RCW 29A.40.110), a mail ballot must be received by 8 p.m. on election day or postmarked by election day. If the postmark is missing or illegible, the date on the voter’s signed ballot declaration determines whether the ballot counts as voted on time. The state’s ballot-status file, which lists each ballot’s status, gives a ballot found to have arrived after this deadline the code “Too Late.”", "answer_heading": "A mail ballot must be received by 8 p.m. on election day or postmarked by election day.", "period": "August 2026 primary · RCW 29A.40.110", "qualification": "The state’s ballot-status file has no postmark field. Its “Too Late” code does not show when or why a ballot was mailed or arrived late.", "status": "published_finding_summary", "reader_url": "/#question-ballots-too-late-rule", "scope": "ballots", "source_collection": "q-wa-late-ballots", "published_source": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-late-ballots/editions/0001/", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "f-too-late-rule" ], "canonical_citations": [ "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-late-ballots/editions/0001/findings/f-too-late-rule/" ], "connections": [ { "to": "ballots-postmark-statement", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "ballots-postmark-statement", "question": "Does a postmark date show when the Postal Service accepted a Washington mail ballot, according to a U.S. Senate press release and a news article published in 2026?", "context": "U.S. Senate press release, January 21, 2026 · News report, September 2, 2026", "answer": "Not necessarily, according to a sentence attributed to the Postal Service, which says that “the postmark date does not inherently or necessarily align with the date on which the Postal Service first accepted possession of the mailpiece.” The sentence is quoted in a January 21, 2026 press release from the office of U.S. Senator Maria Cantwell and in a September 2, 2026 news article in the Washington State Standard. According to the Washington State Standard, mail dropped off more than 50 miles from a distribution center is picked up the next day, instead of at the end of the day, then taken to that center and postmarked there. Senator Cantwell’s press release and the Standard article both place the start of the postmarking change they describe at approximately December 2025.", "answer_heading": "Not necessarily, says a statement attributed to the Postal Service and quoted twice in 2026.", "period": "Statements dated January 21 and September 2, 2026", "qualification": "Neither document is a Postal Service operational directive, and neither fixes a precise date for when the practice began.", "status": "published_finding_summary", "reader_url": "/#question-ballots-postmark-statement", "scope": "ballots", "source_collection": "q-wa-late-ballots", "published_source": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-late-ballots/editions/0001/", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "f-usps-statement" ], "canonical_citations": [ "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-late-ballots/editions/0001/findings/f-usps-statement/" ], "connections": [] }, { "id": "ballots-snapshot-totals", "question": "How many ballot records, rejections and “Too Late” ballots did Washington’s final August 25, 2026 ballot-status file record for the August 4, 2026 primary?", "context": "Washington · 39 counties · August 25, 2026 snapshot", "answer": "Washington’s final ballot-status file for the August 4, 2026 primary, dated August 25, 2026, lists 1,919,356 ballot records from all 39 counties: 1,892,281 accepted and 27,075 rejected. Of the rejected ballots, 20,265 were coded “Too Late” (the code the state gives a ballot found to have arrived after the legal deadline), whether they came by mail or another way. The news site Washington State Standard reported 20,267 late ballots, and the Washington Secretary of State reported 1,892,873 ballots counted, figures that differ from the file’s totals for reasons the study’s evidence does not explain.", "answer_heading": "Final state ballot file: 27,075 rejected, 20,265 coded “Too Late.”", "period": "August 4, 2026 primary · August 25, 2026 snapshot", "qualification": "The file has no postmark field, so these counts do not show when or why any ballot was mailed or arrived late.", "status": "published_finding_summary", "reader_url": "/#question-ballots-snapshot-totals", "scope": "ballots", "source_collection": "q-wa-late-ballots", "published_source": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-late-ballots/editions/0001/", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "f-county-snapshot" ], "canonical_citations": [ "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-late-ballots/editions/0001/findings/f-county-snapshot/" ], "connections": [] }, { "id": "ballots-distance", "question": "In Washington’s August 2026 primary, did counties farther from the nearest of three Postal Service facility locations have higher rates of mail ballots rejected as late?", "context": "39 Washington counties · August 2026 primary", "answer": "Yes, on average: in Washington’s August 2026 primary, counties farther from the nearest of three Postal Service facility locations tended to have higher rates of ballots returned by mail that were rejected as “Too Late.” Across the 39 counties, the correlation between distance and the late rate, a measure of how closely the two move together, was 0.57 for ballots returned by mail and 0.39 for ballots returned by any method. This is a pattern across county totals, not proof that distance caused any ballot to arrive late. Distance runs in a straight line from each county’s population center, and the Seattle, Spokane and Portland, Oregon facility locations were identified through web research and geocoding, not an official postal routing dataset. A provisional check of a county-level statistical model found that distance pointed toward higher late rates in every version tested, but in at least one version the usual statistical test could not rule out chance.", "answer_heading": "Yes, on average, but that does not prove distance caused it.", "period": "August 2026 primary · August 25 snapshot", "qualification": "Straight-line distance is not the route mail travels or how long it takes, the Spokane facility location is approximate, and how a Washington mail ballot is actually routed is still an open question. The state file has no postmark field, and county totals say nothing about when or why any individual ballot arrived late.", "status": "published_finding_summary", "reader_url": "/#question-ballots-distance", "scope": "ballots", "source_collection": "q-wa-late-ballots", "published_source": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-late-ballots/editions/0001/", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "f-distance-association", "f-model-sensitivity" ], "canonical_citations": [ "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-late-ballots/editions/0001/findings/f-distance-association/", "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-late-ballots/editions/0001/findings/f-model-sensitivity/" ], "connections": [] }, { "id": "ballots-primary-2024-2026", "question": "Were more ballots rejected as late, per 1,000 counted, in Washington’s August 2026 primary than in the August 2024 primary?", "context": "Washington · August 2024 and August 2026 primaries", "answer": "Ballots rejected as late, per 1,000 counted, rose from 8.1 in Washington’s August 2024 primary to 10.7 in the August 2026 primary, using late counts reported in a September 2, 2026 article by the news site Washington State Standard. Those rates divide the article’s 16,131 and 20,267 late ballots by the Washington Secretary of State’s official counted totals of 1,994,096 and 1,892,873. The article reports a 32% rise in the number of late ballots. By its own counts, the number rose 25.6%, while the rate per 1,000 counted rose 32.4%, so the reported 32% matches the rise in the rate, once rounded, not the rise in the count. No state record gathered for this study confirms the late counts or says how the 32% was calculated.", "answer_heading": "Yes, using late-ballot counts reported by the news site Washington State Standard.", "period": "August 2024 and August 2026 primaries", "qualification": "The late counts come from a single Washington State Standard news article, not an official state record. Two primaries are different elections with different ballots; they should not be read as one continuous trend with the 2018-2024 general-election rates, and nothing here shows why ballots arrived late.", "status": "published_finding_summary", "reader_url": "/#question-ballots-primary-2024-2026", "scope": "ballots", "source_collection": "q-wa-late-ballots", "published_source": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-late-ballots/editions/0001/", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "f-primary-late-counts" ], "canonical_citations": [ "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-late-ballots/editions/0001/findings/f-primary-late-counts/" ], "connections": [] }, { "id": "ballots-eavs-rates", "question": "How many Washington mail ballots per 1,000 counted were rejected for arriving late in the 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024 general elections?", "context": "Washington · Federal election survey files, 2018-2024", "answer": "Mail ballots rejected for arriving late ran between 0.6 and 3.0 per 1,000 counted ballots in Washington’s 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024 general elections. Year by year, the rate was 3.0 in 2018, 0.6 in 2020, 2.7 in 2022 and 1.2 in 2024. The figures come from the Election Administration and Voting Survey, a file each state sends to the U.S. Election Assistance Commission after every federal general election, and cover all 39 Washington counties. The survey counts mail ballots two ways: as returned by voters and as counted. Measured per 1,000 returned instead of per 1,000 counted, each year’s rate is slightly lower.", "answer_heading": "1.2 per 1,000 counted in 2024; between 0.6 and 3.0 across four elections.", "period": "General elections 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024", "qualification": "These are four separate general elections, not one continuous trend, and they cover different ballots than the August 2024 and August 2026 primaries. This study recalculated the rates from the federal files, but that does not show the federal figures themselves are correct. The 2018 file’s own totals do not add up.", "status": "published_finding_summary", "reader_url": "/#question-ballots-eavs-rates", "scope": "ballots", "source_collection": "q-wa-late-ballots", "published_source": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-late-ballots/editions/0001/", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "f-eavs-rate-series" ], "canonical_citations": [ "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-late-ballots/editions/0001/findings/f-eavs-rate-series/" ], "connections": [ { "to": "ballots-eavs-denominators", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "ballots-eavs-2018-gap", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "ballots-eavs-denominators", "question": "Why can the late-rejection rate for each of Washington’s 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024 general elections be computed two ways from the federal election survey?", "context": "Washington · Federal election survey files, 2018-2024", "answer": "The federal Election Administration and Voting Survey, a file each state sends to the U.S. Election Assistance Commission after every federal general election, counts mail ballots two ways: those returned by voters and those counted. Which count is used changes the rate. In 2018, the same count of late rejections gives 3.01 per 1,000 counted and 2.96 per 1,000 returned. Subtracting all rejected mail ballots from those returned would give a third figure, but the survey does not publish it, and this study reports the rate both published ways instead of choosing one.", "answer_heading": "Because the federal survey counts mail ballots two ways, each year has two late-rejection rates.", "period": "General elections 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024", "qualification": "No statement gathered for this study from the U.S. Election Assistance Commission or the state says which count is the intended standard. Either rate describes separate general elections, not one continuous trend.", "status": "published_finding_summary", "reader_url": "/#question-ballots-eavs-denominators", "scope": "ballots", "source_collection": "q-wa-late-ballots", "published_source": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-late-ballots/editions/0001/", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "f-denominator-definition", "f-eavs-rate-series" ], "canonical_citations": [ "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-late-ballots/editions/0001/findings/f-denominator-definition/", "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-late-ballots/editions/0001/findings/f-eavs-rate-series/" ], "connections": [] }, { "id": "ballots-eavs-2018-gap", "question": "Why don’t the returned, rejected and counted mail-ballot totals agree in Washington’s 2018 federal election survey file?", "context": "Washington · 2018 general election · 39 county jurisdictions", "answer": "No record gathered for this study explains why Washington’s 2018 file in the federal Election Administration and Voting Survey does not add up. Mail ballots returned minus mail ballots rejected for any reason comes to 15,611 more than the number the file reports as counted. Seven counties account for the whole difference, and 13,555 of the 15,611 are in Whitman County. A separate gap in the 2020 file comes from a placeholder value, minus 88, that all 39 county rows carry in one field; it is a code rather than a count, and no rate in this study uses that field.", "answer_heading": "No record gathered for this study explains why the totals are off by 15,611 ballots.", "period": "2018 general election", "qualification": "The study’s evidence does not explain why these figures disagree in this one file. Until it is explained, the 2018 late-rejection rates cannot be fully squared with the file’s other figures.", "status": "published_finding_summary", "reader_url": "/#question-ballots-eavs-2018-gap", "scope": "ballots", "source_collection": "q-wa-late-ballots", "published_source": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-late-ballots/editions/0001/", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "f-2018-partition-difference" ], "canonical_citations": [ "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-late-ballots/editions/0001/findings/f-2018-partition-difference/" ], "connections": [] }, { "id": "ospi-operating-enacted", "question": "Which of the seven 2026 supplemental operating requests from Washington’s state education agency have a confirmed amount in the enacted supplemental operating budget for 2025-27?", "context": "Washington · ESSB 5998, 2026 supplemental operating budget", "answer": "Only the foster-youth request from Washington’s Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction (OSPI), the state education agency, has a confirmed amount in ESSB 5998, the enacted 2026 supplemental operating budget. That bill’s enacted amount for the foster-youth request is $3.5 million, for demonstration sites in fiscal year 2027 only. Of that amount, $55,000 is set aside for a data-sharing agreement among OSPI, the state Department of Children, Youth, and Families and the nongovernmental organizations contracted for the demonstration sites. The other six requests’ enacted amounts are unknown, because a search of the bill’s text did not find them; unknown does not mean zero or denied. Those six requested a total of $131.7 million for the two-year 2025-27 budget. In one near match, the base-operations line in the bill’s Section 501 rose $323,000 in fiscal year 2026, close to, but not proof of, the $315,000 fiscal year 2026 portion of the request for Attorney General’s Office costs.", "answer_heading": "Only the foster-youth request has a confirmed enacted amount.", "period": "2026 supplemental operating budget · 2025-27", "qualification": "Learning whether the six were funded inside larger lump-sum amounts, which a text search cannot separate out, would take agency-level budget detail beyond the bill text. An appropriation is permission to spend, not money paid out or received, a spending record, a finished project or an educational result. No overall enactment rate or enacted total can be calculated for the seven requests, because only one has a confirmed status.", "status": "published_finding_summary", "reader_url": "/#question-ospi-operating-enacted", "scope": "operating", "source_collection": "q-wa-ospi-supplemental-budget", "published_source": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/ospi-supplemental-budget-requests/editions/0001/", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "f-operating-enacted-unknown" ], "canonical_citations": [ "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/ospi-supplemental-budget-requests/editions/0001/findings/f-operating-enacted-unknown/" ], "connections": [] }, { "id": "ospi-sdm-matching", "question": "How many of the 123 Small District Modernization projects Washington’s state education agency requested for the 2026 supplemental budget appear on the March 9, 2026 LEAP Capital Document’s list of funded allocations?", "context": "Washington · Small District Modernization · List dated March 9, 2026", "answer": "Of the Small District Modernization construction and planning projects requested by Washington’s Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction (OSPI), 19 of 123 are on the list of funded allocations in the LEAP Capital Document dated March 9, 2026. LEAP, the Legislative Evaluation and Accountability Program Committee, supports the Legislature’s budget-writing committees. Each of those 19 matches a specific request by project type, district name, legislative district and amount. The other 104 are not on that list, and their status is unknown. Unknown is not the same as not funded, denied or unsuccessful.", "answer_heading": "19 of 123 requested projects appear on the March 9, 2026 list.", "period": "2026 supplemental capital budget · list dated March 9, 2026", "qualification": "Being on the list does not show that a district received or spent the money. What became of the 104 unlisted projects is still open. A later or more complete list, or district spending records, could match more of them.", "status": "published_finding_summary", "reader_url": "/#question-ospi-sdm-matching", "scope": "capital", "source_collection": "q-wa-ospi-supplemental-budget", "published_source": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/ospi-supplemental-budget-requests/editions/0001/", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "f-sdm-project-matching" ], "canonical_citations": [ "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/ospi-supplemental-budget-requests/editions/0001/findings/f-sdm-project-matching/" ], "connections": [] }, { "id": "ospi-seismic-projects", "question": "Does Washington’s enacted supplemental capital budget for 2025-27, SSB 6003, state an amount for each of the two school seismic safety projects it adds?", "context": "Washington · SSB 6003 Section 5004 · 2025-27", "answer": "No. SSB 6003, the enacted supplemental capital budget, adds two projects to the school seismic safety grant program’s list, North Beach Junior/Senior High School and Hoquiam K-6 Consolidation, but states no dollar figure for either one. Alongside them, it adds a single program-wide increase of $13.9 million to the program’s 2025-27 spending authority. Spending authority is permission to spend. Two lines in the state education agency’s request appendix, $5.0 million for North Beach and $8.9 million for Hoquiam K-6, add up to the $13.9 million; the bill itself assigns neither amount.", "answer_heading": "No. The bill raises the program’s 2025-27 spending authority by one $13.9 million amount and does not split it between the two projects.", "period": "Supplemental capital budget · 2025-27", "qualification": "A separate $14.5 million passage for the Hoquiam Junior/Senior High School Consolidation project states non-binding intent for 2027-29, not a current appropriation. An appropriation increase is not money received or spent, and it is not a completed project.", "status": "published_finding_summary", "reader_url": "/#question-ospi-seismic-projects", "scope": "capital", "source_collection": "q-wa-ospi-supplemental-budget", "published_source": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/ospi-supplemental-budget-requests/editions/0001/", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "f-seismic-attribution-is-inference" ], "canonical_citations": [ "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/ospi-supplemental-budget-requests/editions/0001/findings/f-seismic-attribution-is-inference/" ], "connections": [ { "to": "ospi-seismic-discrepancy", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "ospi-seismic-discrepancy", "question": "Does the project list in the 2026 supplemental school seismic safety request from Washington’s state education agency add up to the request’s own fiscal year 2026 figure?", "context": "Washington · School seismic safety request, fiscal year 2026", "answer": "In the 2026 supplemental school seismic safety request from Washington’s Office of Superintendent of Public Instruction (OSPI), the sum of the seven project lines in the appendix is $49,982,000, matching the appendix’s own printed total. OSPI’s decision package, the request document with the fiscal table, states $49,200,000 as the amount requested for fiscal year 2026. The $782,000 difference is in the documents themselves, not an error in reading them, and is unexplained by the evidence examined.", "answer_heading": "No. The project list totals $782,000 more than the request’s figure.", "period": "2026 supplemental request · fiscal year 2026", "qualification": "This does not tell us why the two figures differ. An explanation from the publisher of these documents would resolve it. A requested amount is not an appropriation. An appropriation is permission to spend.", "status": "published_finding_summary", "reader_url": "/#question-ospi-seismic-discrepancy", "scope": "capital", "source_collection": "q-wa-ospi-supplemental-budget", "published_source": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/ospi-supplemental-budget-requests/editions/0001/", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "f-seismic-discrepancy" ], "canonical_citations": [ "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/ospi-supplemental-budget-requests/editions/0001/findings/f-seismic-discrepancy/" ], "connections": [] }, { "id": "income-million-root", "question": "Why did adjusted gross income on Washington tax returns reporting $1 million or more fall from tax year 2022 to 2023?", "context": "Washington · Tax years 2022-23 · Returns with $1 million+ in adjusted gross income", "answer": "IRS figures show that total adjusted gross income on Washington tax returns reporting $1 million or more dropped 8.1% in 2023, before adjusting for inflation, but not why. Adjusted gross income is the income figure the IRS uses to sort tax returns into income groups. The number of those returns, which the IRS publishes rounded to tens, rose from 21,530 to 23,370. These yearly totals do not show how much of the fall came from filers moving, from returns crossing the $1 million line or from changes on returns that were in the group both years, or whether investment markets or a policy caused it.", "answer_heading": "IRS figures show the fall, not its cause.", "period": "Tax years 2022 and 2023", "qualification": "Returns are not people, and a $1 million income is not a measure of wealth. Amounts are not adjusted for inflation, each year’s group can hold different filers, and published return counts are rounded to tens.", "status": "unanswered", "reader_url": "/#question-income-million-root", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "washington-income-2026-09-14", "published_source": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-million-root/index.html", "record_json": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-million-root/record.json", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "income-finding-million-count-and-agi" ], "canonical_citations": [ "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-million-root/index.html" ], "plots": [], "connections": [ { "to": "income-million-components", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-million-cutoffs", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-million-states", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-million-migration", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-root", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-dividends-2019-2023", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-state-establishment-exits", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "income-million-components", "question": "Which kinds of income changed on Washington tax returns with $1 million or more in adjusted gross income from 2022 to 2023?", "context": "Washington · Tax years 2022-23 · $1 million+ returns", "answer": "On Washington tax returns reporting $1 million or more in adjusted gross income, capital gains minus capital losses fell $10.4 billion in 2023, while wages rose $5.1 billion. Adjusted gross income is the income figure the IRS uses to sort tax returns into income groups. All other income and adjustments together fell $17.6 million, and total adjusted gross income fell $5.4 billion. Capital gains were the largest part of the drop in dollars. Capital gains minus losses are not a stock-market return.", "answer_heading": "Capital gains fell $10.4 billion while wages rose $5.1 billion.", "period": "Tax years 2022 and 2023", "qualification": "These capital gains are not the value of investments not yet sold or the gains subject to Washington’s capital-gains tax, and their fall does not separate lower asset prices from the timing of sales, the mix of assets, returns changing income groups, migration or other causes. Wages can also reflect pay changes and which returns fall in the group. Amounts are in each year’s dollars, and each year’s group can hold different filers.", "status": "reviewed", "reader_url": "/#question-income-million-components", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "washington-income-2026-09-14", "published_source": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-million-components/index.html", "record_json": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-million-components/record.json", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "income-finding-million-components", "income-finding-million-largest-component" ], "canonical_citations": [ "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-million-components/index.html" ], "plots": [], "connections": [ { "to": "F7-tax-concentration", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "income-million-cutoffs", "question": "Did total adjusted gross income on Washington tax returns fall from 2022 to 2023 at lower cutoffs such as $500,000 or $200,000, as it did at $1 million or more?", "context": "Washington · Tax years 2022-23 · Four income cutoffs", "answer": "Before adjusting for inflation, only the $1 million-plus group’s total adjusted gross income fell from 2022 to 2023. Adjusted gross income is the income figure the IRS uses to sort tax returns into income groups. Total adjusted gross income on Washington returns fell 8.1% at $1 million or more, but rose 0.6% at $500,000 or more, rose 5.4% at $200,000 or more and rose 4.3% across all returns. Each group holds different returns each year, so this shows how much the answer depends on where the line is drawn, not taxpayers crossing it.", "answer_heading": "Before adjusting for inflation, only the $1 million-plus group’s total fell.", "period": "Tax years 2022 and 2023", "qualification": "This does not track taxpayers moving between groups, because each year’s groups can hold different filers. Returns are not people. After adjusting for inflation with the national consumer price index, the total for returns at $500,000 or more also fell.", "status": "reviewed", "reader_url": "/#question-income-million-cutoffs", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "washington-income-2026-09-14", "published_source": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-million-cutoffs/index.html", "record_json": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-million-cutoffs/record.json", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "income-finding-million-cutoff-sensitivity" ], "canonical_citations": [ "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-million-cutoffs/index.html" ], "plots": [], "connections": [] }, { "id": "income-million-states", "question": "How did the 2022 to 2023 change in adjusted gross income on Washington’s $1 million-plus returns compare with the other 49 states and the District of Columbia?", "context": "50 states and DC · Tax years 2022-23 · $1 million+ returns", "answer": "On returns reporting $1 million or more in adjusted gross income, Washington’s total fell 8.1% in 2023, the 12th steepest drop among the 50 states and DC. Adjusted gross income is the income figure the IRS uses to sort tax returns into income groups. The other 49 states and DC combined fell 6.2%, so Washington’s drop was 1.9 percentage points steeper. Totals on these returns fell in 38 of the 50 states and DC, in each year’s dollars.", "answer_heading": "Washington’s drop was the 12th steepest; totals fell in 38 of the 50 states and DC.", "period": "Tax years 2022 and 2023", "qualification": "This comparison covers the 50 states and DC only, not Puerto Rico or other areas. Amounts are in each year’s dollars, each year’s group can hold different filers, and a rank or a gap does not establish a cause.", "status": "reviewed", "reader_url": "/#question-income-million-states", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "washington-income-2026-09-14", "published_source": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-million-states/index.html", "record_json": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-million-states/record.json", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "income-finding-million-states-decline", "income-finding-million-rank", "income-finding-million-relative-gap" ], "canonical_citations": [ "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-million-states/index.html" ], "plots": [], "connections": [ { "to": "income-million-gap", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "income-million-gap", "question": "Which kinds of income account for the gap between Washington’s 2022 to 2023 change in $1 million-plus adjusted gross income and the change in the other 49 states and DC?", "context": "$1 million+ returns · Washington versus 49 states and DC, 2022-23", "answer": "Income other than wages and capital gains accounts for nearly all of the gap between Washington and the other 49 states and DC, because wages and capital gains nearly cancel out. On returns reporting $1 million or more in adjusted gross income, Washington’s total fell 1.9 percentage points more than the combined total of the other 49 states and DC from 2022 to 2023. Adjusted gross income is the income figure the IRS uses to sort tax returns into income groups. Other income here means everything in adjusted gross income besides wages and capital gains: other kinds of income, such as interest, dividends and business income, along with adjustments set by law. In the gap with the other states, in percentage points: wages, in Washington’s favor, 7.6 points; capital gains, against Washington, 7.6 points; and other income, against Washington, 1.9 points, nearly the whole gap. Capital gains were the largest part of Washington’s own drop in dollars, but that does not carry over to this gap, because within the gap the effect of wages almost exactly cancels the effect of capital gains.", "answer_heading": "Mostly other income; wages and capital gains nearly cancel.", "period": "Tax years 2022 and 2023", "qualification": "These amounts are not adjusted for inflation, and the breakdown does not explain causes. It does not adjust for which returns are in each year’s $1 million-plus group. Business income is only one part of other income. From 2021 to 2022, IRS state files for those years show a different pattern: wages, capital gains and other income all pulled Washington below the other states, by 6.9, 6.6 and 2.2 percentage points.", "status": "reviewed", "reader_url": "/#question-income-million-gap", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "washington-income-2026-09-14", "published_source": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-million-gap/index.html", "record_json": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-million-gap/record.json", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "income-finding-million-gap-total", "income-finding-million-gap-offset", "income-finding-million-gap-other-income" ], "canonical_citations": [ "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-million-gap/index.html" ], "plots": [], "connections": [] }, { "id": "income-million-migration", "question": "Can IRS address-change records show how much of the 2023 fall in Washington’s $1 million-plus adjusted gross income came from returns moving out of state?", "context": "Washington · IRS filing years 2022-23 · $200,000+ band", "answer": "No. The latest IRS address-change files examined cover returns filed in 2022 and 2023, which report income from tax years 2021 and 2022, so they do not directly measure how moving changed income in tax year 2023. Adjusted gross income is the income figure the IRS uses to sort tax returns into income groups. The $200,000-plus group had a net outflow of 2,057 tax returns, and returns leaving reported $1.2 billion more in adjusted gross income than returns arriving. Both the $200,000 line and the dollar amount come from the later year’s return. These figures cannot be relabeled as departures of $1 million-plus filers or turned into a share of the 2023 decline.", "answer_heading": "No. These IRS records cannot show how much of the 2023 fall came from filers moving out of state.", "period": "IRS filing years 2022 and 2023, income from tax years 2021 and 2022", "qualification": "Returns filed in 2022 and 2023 report income from tax years 2021 and 2022, not 2023. 2,057 more tax returns in the $200,000-plus group left Washington than arrived; that counts returns, not people.", "status": "reviewed", "reader_url": "/#question-income-million-migration", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "washington-income-2026-09-14", "published_source": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-million-migration/index.html", "record_json": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-million-migration/record.json", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "income-finding-million-migration-band" ], "canonical_citations": [ "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-million-migration/index.html" ], "plots": [], "connections": [ { "to": "income-migration-classes", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "income-dividends-2019-2023", "question": "How did total ordinary dividends on Washington tax returns, across all income groups, change from 2019 to 2023, compared with the other 49 states and DC combined?", "context": "Washington versus 49 states and DC · All income groups, 2019-2023", "answer": "Across all income groups, total ordinary dividends on Washington returns rose 25.5%, from $11.6 billion in 2019 to $14.5 billion in 2023, while the other 49 states and DC combined rose 53.2%. Ordinary dividends are the federal reporting category for dividend income, including qualified dividends, the part that meets conditions for lower federal tax rates. These are combined dollar totals, not the average change for a person or an average of the states’ separate changes.", "answer_heading": "Ordinary dividends rose 25.5% in Washington, 53.2% in other states and DC.", "period": "Tax years 2019 to 2023", "qualification": "These are published totals in each year’s dollars; they do not follow individual filers. A return’s address can differ from where the filer lives. The IRS excludes some amounts for confidentiality, and the effect on these totals has not been measured. These past years alone cannot show what caused the changes.", "status": "reviewed", "reader_url": "/#question-income-dividends-2019-2023", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "washington-income-2026-09-14", "published_source": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-dividends-2019-2023/index.html", "record_json": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-dividends-2019-2023/record.json", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "income-finding-dividends-national" ], "canonical_citations": [ "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-dividends-2019-2023/index.html" ], "plots": [], "connections": [ { "to": "income-dividends-king-rest", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-dividends-counties", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-dividends-king-mix", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-root", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "income-dividends-king-rest", "question": "How did total ordinary dividends on King County tax returns, across all income groups, change from 2019 to 2023, compared with Washington’s other 38 counties combined?", "context": "King County versus 38 other Washington counties · All income groups, 2019-2023", "answer": "Across all income groups, King County’s ordinary dividends rose 15.3% from 2019 to 2023, while the other 38 Washington counties together rose 46.6%. Ordinary dividends are the federal reporting category for dividend income, including qualified dividends. King County accounted for 67.2% of Washington’s ordinary dividend dollars in 2019 and 61.7% in 2023.", "answer_heading": "Ordinary dividends rose 15.3% in King County, 46.6% in the other 38 counties.", "period": "Tax years 2019 to 2023", "qualification": "These are published totals in each year’s dollars; they do not follow individual filers. A return’s address can differ from where the filer lives. The IRS excludes some amounts for confidentiality, and the effect on these totals has not been measured. These past years alone cannot show what caused the changes.", "status": "reviewed", "reader_url": "/#question-income-dividends-king-rest", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "washington-income-2026-09-14", "published_source": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-dividends-king-rest/index.html", "record_json": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-dividends-king-rest/record.json", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "income-finding-dividends-king-rest" ], "canonical_citations": [ "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-dividends-king-rest/index.html" ], "plots": [ "income-plot-dividends-king-rest" ], "connections": [ { "to": "income-dividends-king-peers", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "income-dividends-counties", "question": "In which Washington counties did reported qualified dividends, across all income groups, fall from 2019 to 2023?", "context": "Washington counties · All income groups · Tax years 2019-2023", "answer": "Qualified dividends fell between 2019 and 2023 in three Washington counties: King, Klickitat and Wahkiakum. The declines were 2.8% in King County, 4.0% in Klickitat County and 4.3% in Wahkiakum County; the other 36 counties rose. Qualified dividends are the part of ordinary dividends that meets conditions for lower federal tax rates, counted here across all income groups. A county’s percentage change does not show how many dollars it added to or took from the state’s total.", "answer_heading": "Qualified dividends fell only in King, Klickitat and Wahkiakum.", "period": "Tax years 2019 and 2023", "qualification": "These are published totals in each year’s dollars; they do not follow individual filers. A return’s address can differ from where the filer lives. The IRS excludes some amounts for confidentiality, and the effect on these totals has not been measured. These past years alone cannot show what caused the changes.", "status": "reviewed", "reader_url": "/#question-income-dividends-counties", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "washington-income-2026-09-14", "published_source": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-dividends-counties/index.html", "record_json": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-dividends-counties/record.json", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "income-finding-dividends-counties" ], "canonical_citations": [ "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-dividends-counties/index.html" ], "plots": [ "income-plot-dividends-counties" ], "connections": [] }, { "id": "income-dividends-king-mix", "question": "How did qualified dividends and the rest of ordinary dividends change on tax returns in Washington’s King County from 2022 to 2023, across all income groups?", "context": "King County, Washington · All income groups · Tax years 2022-23", "answer": "In Washington’s King County, qualified dividends fell by nearly as much as the rest of ordinary dividends rose from 2022 to 2023. Qualified dividends are the part of ordinary dividends that meets conditions for lower federal tax rates. Across all King County income groups, qualified dividends fell $1.1 billion, or 14.6%, while the rest of ordinary dividends rose $1.1 billion. Total ordinary dividends barely moved, up $5.6 million or 0.06%. A change in the mix of reported dollars does not show that the same investors switched investments.", "answer_heading": "Qualified dividends fell nearly as much as other ordinary dividends rose, so the total barely moved.", "period": "Tax years 2022 and 2023", "qualification": "Qualified dividends are part of ordinary dividends and must not be added to them. These are published totals in each year’s dollars; they do not follow individual filers. A return’s address can differ from where the filer lives. The IRS excludes some amounts for confidentiality, and the effect has not been measured. These past years alone cannot show what caused the changes.", "status": "reviewed", "reader_url": "/#question-income-dividends-king-mix", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "washington-income-2026-09-14", "published_source": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-dividends-king-mix/index.html", "record_json": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-dividends-king-mix/record.json", "canonical_finding_ids": [ "income-finding-dividends-king-mix" ], "canonical_citations": [ "/research/washington-income/2026-09-14/nodes/income-dividends-king-mix/index.html" ], "plots": [ "income-plot-dividends-king-mix" ], "connections": [ { "to": "income-dividends-king-bins", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-king-interest-dividends", "kind": "navigation_child", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-ordinary-counts", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-historical-dividends", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true }, { "to": "income-followup-accounting", "kind": "related_reading", "not_causal": true } ] }, { "id": "dor-table-s2-2021", "question": "Can the Washington Department of Revenue's (DOR) Table S2 for calendar year 2021 be used for 2020 local sales and use tax distributions to cities and counties, and for the change from 2020 to 2021?", "context": "Washington Department of Revenue · Table S2, calendar year 2021 edition · Local sales and use tax", "answer": "In DOR's calendar year 2021 edition of Table S2, 362 of 362 rows hold 2019 amounts in the column labeled 2020, so every change the table prints from 2020 to 2021 is a change from 2019. Its 2021 amounts match the 2021 column of DOR's calendar year 2022 edition in all 362 rows, and the correct 2020 amounts are in DOR's calendar year 2020 edition. Using those 2020 amounts, Seattle's distributions rose 12.60% from 2020 to 2021, where the table prints a 0.02% fall, and statewide distributions rose 17.13%, where the table prints a 15.61% rise.", "answer_heading": "DOR's 2021 Table S2 mislabels 2019 amounts as 2020", "period": "Calendar years 2020 and 2021", "qualification": "The table does not show how the 2019 amounts came to be in its 2020 column. To quote a 2020 amount or a 2020 to 2021 change for any other city or county, take the 2020 amount from DOR's calendar year 2020 edition. As of September 24, 2026, DOR still serves the same file, and its calendar year 2021 page shows no correction notice.", "status": "answered_from_public_sources", "reader_url": "/#question-dor-table-s2-2021", "scope": "local-taxes", "source_collection": "public-sources-2026-09-26", "published_source": "https://dor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2022-07/TableS2-2021.xlsx", "canonical_finding_ids": [], "canonical_citations": [ "https://dor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2022-07/TableS2-2021.xlsx", "https://dor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2022-07/TableS2-2021.pdf", "https://dor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2022-02/TableS2-2020.xlsx", "https://dor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2024-01/TableS2-2022.xlsx", "https://dor.wa.gov/calendar-year-2021-local-sales-and-use-tax-distributions", "https://dor.wa.gov/about/statistics-reports/local-taxes/local-sales-and-use-tax-distribution/calendar-year-2020-local-sales-and-use-tax-distributions" ], "connections": [] }, { "id": "districts-spending-change", "question": "Did spending per enrollment unit in Washington's 295 school districts follow the statewide 12.5% rise from 2021-22 to 2024-25?", "context": "Washington · 295 school districts · 2021-22 to 2024-25", "answer": "In the median Washington school district, spending per enrollment unit rose 12.1% from 2021-22 to 2024-25 before inflation, against a statewide rise of 12.5%. An enrollment unit mostly represents a full-time student's course load and is not a count of children. In the middle half of districts the rise ranged from 6.7% to 17.0%, and spending per enrollment unit fell in 32 of 295 districts; enrollment units grew in 31 of those 32 districts, and total spending did not fall in 25 of the 32. The statewide 12.5%, from $17,214 to $19,371 per enrollment unit, divides all spending by all enrollment units in each year, so larger districts count more.", "answer_heading": "Median district's per-unit spending rose 12.1% before inflation", "period": "School years 2021-22 to 2024-25", "qualification": "Spending here is General Fund spending, which leaves out separate capital and debt-service funds. Charter and tribal compact schools count in the statewide figure but not in the district figures. The figures compare only 2021-22 with 2024-25 and do not show why any district's spending changed.", "status": "answered_from_public_sources", "reader_url": "/#question-districts-spending-change", "scope": "districts", "source_collection": "public-sources-2026-09-26", "published_source": "https://ospi.k12.wa.us/sites/default/files/2025-12/10_year_f-196_data_2024-25.xlsx", "canonical_finding_ids": [], "canonical_citations": [ "https://ospi.k12.wa.us/sites/default/files/2025-12/10_year_f-196_data_2024-25.xlsx" ], "connections": [] }, { "id": "F7-tax-concentration", "question": "In Washington Department of Revenue (DOR) tables, was the fall in capital-gains tax payments from tax year 2022 to tax year 2023 spread across payments of all sizes, or concentrated in the largest payments?", "context": "Washington · Capital-gains tax payments · Tax years 2022-23", "answer": "Washington capital-gains tax payments fell $363.7 million from tax year 2022 to 2023 in DOR tables compiled as of January 6, 2025, and almost all of the drop was in the largest payments. The drop in the highest of DOR's ten payment-size levels, payments of $230,000 or more in 2022 and $190,000 or more in 2023, equals 99.5% of the drop; that level's total fell 54.2%, while the other nine levels together fell 1.7%. The ten largest payments made up 50.5% of the 2022 total, and the gap between the 2022 and 2023 ten-largest totals equals 72.9% of the drop. By January 6, 2025, the 2022 figures had been open to refunds and amendments longer than the 2023 figures; DOR's June 9, 2026 totals revise both years to $782.0 million and $394.7 million, a larger drop of $387.3 million, and give no breakdown by payment size.", "answer_heading": "Almost all of the capital-gains tax drop was in top payments", "period": "Tax years 2022 and 2023", "qualification": "DOR sorts each year's payments into ten levels it calls deciles, so the levels and the ten largest are formed separately each year and need not hold the same payers; most levels' dollar ranges differ between 2022 and 2023, and the tables report payments, not taxpayers. These totals, which count payments after paid and estimated refunds, do not show why payments fell, whether anyone moved, or whether investment returns fell. In DOR's June 9, 2026 figures, tax year 2024 payments were higher than 2023, and DOR's statistics index, its other-taxes statistics page, its capital-gains tax page, its payment summary page and its June 9, 2026 collections page, checked on September 24, 2026, linked no ten-largest or payment-size table for any tax year after 2023.", "status": "answered_from_public_sources", "record_status": "Descriptive answer; cause not identified", "reader_url": "/#question-F7-tax-concentration", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "public-sources-2026-09-26", "published_source": "https://dor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2025-02/CapGainsPmtsDecile.pdf", "canonical_finding_ids": [], "canonical_citations": [ "https://dor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2025-02/CapGainsPmtsDecile.pdf", "https://dor.wa.gov/about/statistics-reports/capital-gains-tax-tax-year-2025-initial-collections" ], "plots": [], "connections": [] }, { "id": "income-state-establishment-exits", "question": "How did Washington's 2023 closing rate for business locations with paid employees compare with the 50 states and DC, and with Washington's own rates from 2015 to 2021?", "context": "Washington, 50 states and DC · Business locations with paid employees · 2015-2023", "answer": "Washington's closing rate for business locations with paid employees was 10.3% in 2023, sixth highest of the 50 states and DC, whose median was 8.8%. A closing is a location that had paid employees in March of the prior year and none the following March, and the rate compares closings with the average number of such locations in the two years. Washington's rate was 1.3 percentage points above its 2015 to 2019 average of 9.0%, the third largest rise of the 51, but all of that rise had come by 2021, the last year wholly before the capital-gains tax took effect in January 2022: its rate was 10.1% in 2020 and 10.4% in 2021. From 2020 to 2023 its rise ranked 24th of 51, near the middle, though comparisons with 2020 and 2021 may be affected by unusual pandemic-era business conditions.", "answer_heading": "Washington's business closing rate was sixth highest in 2023", "period": "2015 to 2023", "qualification": "These figures do not show whether Washington's capital-gains tax changed business closings: only one year of closings here falls wholly after the tax took effect, the data end in 2023, no source used here links a capital-gains taxpayer to a business location, and the ranks do not adjust for industry mix, population, location size or regional economic shocks. The counts cover locations rather than whole companies and do not show whether any business moved to another state. This comparison was chosen after the fact: earlier work on the same Census data had already found Washington's 2023 rate above the rest of the country, and the 2020 comparison was added after that work but before any state was ranked.", "status": "answered_from_public_sources", "record_status": "Descriptive observation; no cause established", "reader_url": "/#question-income-state-establishment-exits", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "public-sources-2026-09-26", "published_source": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/bds/tables/time-series/2023/bds2023_st.csv", "canonical_finding_ids": [], "canonical_citations": [ "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/bds/tables/time-series/2023/bds2023_st.csv", "https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/bds/documentation/methodology.html" ], "plots": [], "connections": [] }, { "id": "income-dividends-king-bins", "question": "From 2022 to 2023, how much of the change in King County's average ordinary dividends, per tax return reporting them, came from a shift in the mix of income groups and how much from changes in each group's own average?", "context": "King County, Washington · Tax returns reporting ordinary dividends · Tax years 2022-23", "answer": "In King County, average ordinary dividends per return reporting them fell $761 from 2022 to 2023, from $21,667 to $20,906. In an accounting split, changes in group averages lowered the average by $1,852 and a shift in the income-group mix raised the average by $1,091. The $200,000-or-more group grew from 41.2% to 44.1% of reporting returns, but its own average fell 11.8%, from $45,196 to $39,863, which by itself lowered the county average by $2,273; the other seven groups' averages together raised it by $421, as the six groups with income from $1 to under $200,000 all rose and the group with no positive income fell. The research record is a candidate finding awaiting independent review, and a separate calculation from the same IRS files reproduced these figures.", "answer_heading": "Average dividend fell $761 as the top group's average shrank", "period": "Tax years 2022 and 2023", "qualification": "Counts are tax returns, not people, and each year's groups can hold different filers, so a larger share does not show filers moving up. Groups are based on a return's income, dividends included, so a return can change groups when its dividends change, and the top group has no upper limit. The split weights 2022 and 2023 equally, and weighting by either year alone changes the amounts but not which part raised or lowered the average; its dollars are not adjusted for inflation, and it does not show a cause, such as moves, changes in holdings or company payouts.", "status": "answered_from_public_sources", "record_status": "Research candidate, pending independent review", "reader_url": "/#question-income-dividends-king-bins", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "public-sources-2026-09-26", "published_source": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/22incyallagi.csv", "canonical_finding_ids": [], "canonical_citations": [ "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/22incyallagi.csv", "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/23incyallagi.csv", "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/23incydocguide.docx" ], "plots": [], "connections": [] }, { "id": "income-king-interest-dividends", "question": "How did taxable interest plus ordinary dividends on King County, Washington, tax returns, all income groups, change from 2022 to 2023, compared with the median of 76 U.S. county areas that had $1 billion or more in ordinary dividends in 2022?", "context": "King County and 76 large dividend areas · All income groups · Tax years 2022-23", "answer": "From 2022 to 2023, taxable interest plus ordinary dividends on King County tax returns, all income groups, rose 18.6%, from $10.7 billion to $12.7 billion, against a 48.6% median rise among 76 U.S. county areas with $1 billion or more in 2022 ordinary dividends, King County included. The 76 were picked by 2022 dividend size alone, after King County's 2023 result was known, and King County's rise was second lowest of these 76 areas, all of which rose. Taxable interest rose $2 billion while ordinary dividends rose $5.6 million, and these yearly totals cannot show whether anyone sold dividend-paying investments and bought interest-paying ones. The research record labels this comparison a candidate finding awaiting independent review, and separately written programs reproduced its figures from the raw IRS files.", "answer_heading": "King County's taxable interest and dividends rose 18.6%", "period": "Tax years 2022 and 2023", "qualification": "Interest was combined with dividends for this comparison after the 76 areas' 2023 dividend and taxable interest results were known, and the 76 were picked for dividend size, not to resemble King County, so the rank describes this group alone. Choosing areas instead by $1 billion or more in 2019 dividends, a rule also set after the 2023 results were known, gives 60 areas with data for 2022 and 2023, and King County's 2022 to 2023 rise is second lowest there too. Amounts are in each year's dollars, placed by filing address, so they do not follow the same people over time, measure the effect of people moving, or show why King County's rise was smaller.", "status": "answered_from_public_sources", "record_status": "Research candidate, pending independent review", "reader_url": "/#question-income-king-interest-dividends", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "public-sources-2026-09-26", "published_source": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/22incyallnoagi.csv", "canonical_finding_ids": [], "canonical_citations": [ "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/22incyallnoagi.csv", "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/23incyallnoagi.csv", "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/19incyallnoagi.csv", "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-prior/p550--2023.pdf" ], "plots": [], "connections": [] }, { "id": "income-dividends-king-peers", "question": "How did total ordinary dividends on King County, Washington, tax returns, all income groups, change from 2019 to 2023, compared with U.S. counties whose returns reported $1 billion or more in ordinary dividends in 2019?", "context": "King County and 60 large U.S. dividend counties · All income groups · 2019-2023", "answer": "Across all income groups, ordinary dividends on King County tax returns rose 15.3% from 2019 to 2023, against a 52.8% median rise among 60 large U.S. dividend counties, King County included, and King County's rise was the lowest of the 60. Ordinary dividends are the federal tax category for dividend income, qualified dividends included, and the 60 are the counties whose 2019 returns reported $1 billion or more in ordinary dividends and that appear in all five yearly IRS files. King County stayed below the median in all 18 comparisons tested, which varied the start year from 2019 to 2022 and the county group, but its rank ranged from lowest of 60 to 10th lowest of 124. The research record labels this a candidate finding awaiting independent review, and a separate script reproduced every figure from the raw IRS files.", "answer_heading": "King County's dividends rose 15.3%, below the 52.8% median", "period": "Tax years 2019 to 2023", "qualification": "These are published totals in each year's dollars; they do not follow individual filers, a return's address can differ from where the filer lives, and the IRS withholds some amounts for confidentiality, an effect not measured here. The 60-county test was set up after King County's 0.06% dividend rise from 2022 to 2023 was already known, though its rules were fixed before its medians were computed, and it covers only large dividend counties. These totals cannot separate people moving away from changes in holdings, payouts, large recipients, classifications or disclosure, and they do not show what produced the gap.", "status": "answered_from_public_sources", "record_status": "Research candidate, pending independent review", "reader_url": "/#question-income-dividends-king-peers", "scope": "income", "source_collection": "public-sources-2026-09-26", "published_source": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/19incyallnoagi.csv", "canonical_finding_ids": [], "canonical_citations": [ "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/19incyallnoagi.csv", "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/23incyallnoagi.csv", "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/19incydocguide.docx", "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/20incyallnoagi.csv", "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/21incyallnoagi.csv", "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/22incyallnoagi.csv" ], "plots": [], "connections": [] } ], "asset_index": [ { "alt": "Captured statewide totals in JSON form.", "artifact_id": "artifact-aggregates", "bytes": 1457, "caption": "The six statewide totals this edition uses, each rounded half-up to the cent from the captured OSPI workbook.", "evidence_ids": [ "e-enrollment-1819", "e-enrollment-1920", "e-enrollment-2122", "e-enrollment-2425", "e-expenditures-1819", "e-expenditures-1920", "e-expenditures-2122", "e-expenditures-2425" ], "finding_ids": [ "f-enrollment-measure", "f-nominal-growth" ], "kind": "other", "label": "Captured statewide aggregates", "license": "Penner Strategy analysis of Washington OSPI and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics public records. 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Reuse with attribution and with the qualifications attached.", "media_type": "text/x-python", "path": "assets/reproduction/statewide_growth.py", "reuse_restriction": "The underlying OSPI and BLS files remain with their publishers; this package redistributes the derived tables, figures and code only.", "sha256": "54e00b2128ff10e4f40eb63d0e7204b96fd28b7294e2404fa3406542edcaf58b", "local_url": "/research/school-spending/0002/assets/reproduction/statewide_growth.py", "canonical_url": "https://pennerstrategy.com/research/washington-school-spending/editions/0002/assets/reproduction/statewide_growth.py" }, { "alt": "Table of statewide expenditure by program for both years.", "artifact_id": "artifact-program-expenditures", "bytes": 653, "caption": "Statewide expenditure in both years for each plotted program, read from the captured workbook.", "data_columns": [ { "definition_id": "def-program", "key": "program_code", "label": "Program code", "representation": "text", "unit": "code" }, { "definition_id": "def-program", "key": "program", "label": "Program", "representation": "text", "unit": "label" }, { "definition_id": "def-general-fund", "key": "expenditure_2021_22", "label": "2021-22 expenditure", "representation": "decimal", "unit": "dollars" }, { "definition_id": "def-general-fund", "key": "expenditure_2024_25", "label": "2024-25 expenditure", "representation": "decimal", "unit": "dollars" } ], "evidence_ids": [ "e-program-contributions", "e-relief-programs" ], "finding_ids": [ "f-program-mix", "f-relief-exclusion" ], "kind": "data", "label": "Statewide program expenditure", "license": "Penner Strategy analysis of Washington OSPI and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics public records. 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