{
  "title": "Washington income",
  "description": "Reviewed historical dividend findings, migration limits and newer income context, with three proposed follow-ups.",
  "period": "TY2022-TY2023 historical comparison; distinct context through 2026 Q1",
  "as_of_date": "2026-09-21",
  "root_id": "income-root",
  "publication_state": "prepared",
  "record_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/index.html",
  "source_index_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/sources/index.html",
  "nodes": [
    {
      "id": "income-root",
      "question": "Why did King County’s dividend income lag?",
      "hint": "Descriptive answers, unresolved cause",
      "answer": "The reviewed records establish a historical dividend decline and describe migration and newer income context. They do not identify why the decline occurred.",
      "period": "Historical IRS comparisons: TY2022-TY2023; separate context through 2026 Q1",
      "limit": "No proven tax motive, migration explanation or policy effect. Broader measures cannot update the exact IRS dividend series.",
      "status": "unanswered",
      "children": [
        "income-historical-dividends",
        "income-migration",
        "income-newer-context"
      ],
      "related": [],
      "findings": [],
      "plots": [],
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "IRS SOI County Data landing page",
          "url": "https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-county-data"
        }
      ],
      "record_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-root/index.html",
      "as_of_date": "2026-09-21",
      "methods": "",
      "lineage_ids": [
        "WA-M-012",
        "current"
      ],
      "publication_state": "prepared",
      "record_json_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-root/record.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "income-historical-dividends",
      "question": "What changed in King County dividends?",
      "hint": "Same income class, same tax-year comparison",
      "answer": "Qualified dividends reported by King County returns with AGI of $200,000 or more fell from $6.340 billion in TY2022 to $5.314 billion in TY2023, a 16.2% decline. The available data do not establish why.",
      "period": "Tax years 2022 and 2023",
      "limit": "Annual tax-return groups do not follow the same people. Qualified dividends are part of ordinary dividends; different AGI groups cannot establish an offset between categories. The cause is unresolved.",
      "status": "reviewed",
      "children": [
        "income-ordinary-counts",
        "income-followup-accounting"
      ],
      "related": [
        "income-migration",
        "income-exact-persistence"
      ],
      "findings": [
        {
          "id": "income-finding-qualified-decline",
          "title": "A qualified-dividend decline in the $200,000-plus group",
          "text": "Reported King County qualified dividends fell 16.2%, while the number of returns reporting them rose about 9.9%.",
          "limits": [
            "Annual tax-return groups do not follow the same people. Qualified dividends are part of ordinary dividends; different AGI groups cannot establish an offset between categories. The cause is unresolved."
          ],
          "source_url": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/23incyallagi.csv"
        },
        {
          "id": "income-finding-national-comparison",
          "title": "The national same-class aggregate moved upward",
          "text": "National qualified-dividend dollars in the $200,000-or-more AGI class rose 9.10% over the same tax-year comparison.",
          "limits": [
            "This is descriptive context, not evidence of a statistically exceptional break or a causal explanation."
          ],
          "source_url": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/23incyallagi.csv"
        }
      ],
      "plots": [],
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "IRS county data, TY2022: Income by AGI class",
          "url": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/22incyallagi.csv"
        },
        {
          "label": "IRS county data, TY2023: Income by AGI class",
          "url": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/23incyallagi.csv"
        }
      ],
      "record_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-historical-dividends/index.html",
      "as_of_date": "2026-09-21",
      "methods": "Final historical claim review reproduced arithmetic from retained IRS county tables and constrained interpretation. No unverified all-state ranking is included.",
      "lineage_ids": [
        "N1"
      ],
      "publication_state": "prepared",
      "record_json_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-historical-dividends/record.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "income-ordinary-counts",
      "question": "Did counts or average amounts explain the flat ordinary-dividend total?",
      "hint": "Arithmetic decomposition",
      "answer": "All-income-class ordinary dividends were nearly flat, up 0.062%, while returns reporting them rose 3.705%. The amount per reporting return therefore fell 3.512%.",
      "period": "Tax years 2022 and 2023",
      "limit": "Annual tax-return groups do not follow the same people. Qualified dividends are part of ordinary dividends; different AGI groups cannot establish an offset between categories. The cause is unresolved.",
      "status": "reviewed",
      "children": [],
      "related": [
        "income-historical-dividends"
      ],
      "findings": [
        {
          "id": "income-finding-ordinary-ratio",
          "title": "The aggregate ratio fell",
          "text": "Ordinary dividends rose from $8.953910 billion to $8.959487 billion; reporting returns rose from 413,260 to 428,570.",
          "limits": [
            "This explains the ratio arithmetically. It does not prove that new low-dividend recipients diluted an unchanged cohort.",
            "All-bracket ordinary dividends are a different comparison from $200,000-plus qualified dividends."
          ],
          "source_url": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/23incyallnoagi.csv"
        }
      ],
      "plots": [],
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "IRS county data, TY2022: All-income totals",
          "url": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/22incyallnoagi.csv"
        },
        {
          "label": "IRS county data, TY2023: All-income totals",
          "url": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/23incyallnoagi.csv"
        }
      ],
      "record_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-ordinary-counts/index.html",
      "as_of_date": "2026-09-21",
      "methods": "Aggregate amount divided by reporting-return count, compared across two annual cross-sections.",
      "lineage_ids": [
        "N2-085544fb1710"
      ],
      "publication_state": "prepared",
      "record_json_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-ordinary-counts/record.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "income-migration",
      "question": "What can migration records tell us?",
      "hint": "Earlier address transitions",
      "answer": "The retained files describe Washington income-class balances and King County destinations. They cannot establish how much, if any, of the later qualified-dividend decline came from moving.",
      "period": "Calendar-year filing transition 2022-2023",
      "limit": "Matched filing-address returns are not individual people. Class and amount use year-2 income. This earlier transition differs from the dividend comparison; aggregate AGI does not identify dividend income, tax motive or a causal mechanism.",
      "status": "reviewed",
      "children": [
        "income-migration-classes",
        "income-migration-destinations",
        "income-followup-migration"
      ],
      "related": [
        "income-historical-dividends"
      ],
      "findings": [],
      "plots": [],
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "IRS migration data and documentation, 2022-2023",
          "url": "https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data-2022-2023"
        }
      ],
      "record_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-migration/index.html",
      "as_of_date": "2026-09-21",
      "methods": "Independent review reaggregated source CSVs and applied deterministic bounds to region-only suppression. Corrected charts retain exact plotted CSV rows.",
      "lineage_ids": [
        "N2-581f24616c1f"
      ],
      "publication_state": "prepared",
      "record_json_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-migration/record.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "income-migration-classes",
      "question": "Which income groups had more outgoing than incoming returns?",
      "hint": "Classified by year-2 AGI",
      "answer": "The $200,000-plus class had 2,057 fewer inflow than outflow returns. It was the only one of the seven published classes with a negative balance.",
      "period": "Calendar-year filing transition 2022-2023",
      "limit": "Matched filing-address returns are not individual people. Class and amount use year-2 income. This earlier transition differs from the dividend comparison; aggregate AGI does not identify dividend income, tax motive or a causal mechanism.",
      "status": "reviewed",
      "children": [],
      "related": [
        "income-migration-destinations",
        "income-followup-migration"
      ],
      "findings": [
        {
          "id": "income-finding-agi-class-balance",
          "title": "The highest published class had a negative balance",
          "text": "The $200,000-plus class had 10,461 inflow and 12,518 outflow returns. Inflow-group year-2 AGI was $1.185494 billion below outflow-group year-2 AGI.",
          "limits": [
            "Year-2 AGI is income on the final return. This is not a pre-move Washington cohort or money shown to have left the state.",
            "Matched filing-address returns are not individual people. Class and amount use year-2 income. This earlier transition differs from the dividend comparison; aggregate AGI does not identify dividend income, tax motive or a causal mechanism."
          ],
          "source_url": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/2223inmigall.csv"
        }
      ],
      "plots": [
        {
          "id": "income-plot-wa-migration",
          "title": "Inflow minus outflow groups’ year-2 AGI",
          "caption": "Seven Washington AGI classes, assigned using year-2 income. The $200,000-plus class has a negative balance. This compares groups and does not identify a pre-move cohort or dollars shown to have left Washington.",
          "alt": "Seven horizontal bars of inflow-group minus outflow-group year-2 AGI. The six lower classes are nonnegative; the $200,000-plus class is negative.",
          "image_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/charts/wa-year2-agi-penner-strategy.svg",
          "download_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/charts/wa-year2-agi-penner-strategy.svg",
          "data_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/data/wa-year2-agi.csv",
          "record_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-migration-classes/index.html"
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "IRS Gross Migration File, CY2022-2023",
          "url": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/2223inmigall.csv"
        },
        {
          "label": "IRS migration data and documentation, 2022-2023",
          "url": "https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data-2022-2023"
        }
      ],
      "record_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-migration-classes/index.html",
      "as_of_date": "2026-09-21",
      "methods": "Subtract outflow-group values from inflow-group values within each published year-2 AGI class. The chart and CSV retain all seven classes.",
      "lineage_ids": [
        "E-638c241b8d8b"
      ],
      "publication_state": "prepared",
      "record_json_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-migration-classes/record.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "income-migration-destinations",
      "question": "Where did returns leaving King County move?",
      "hint": "Named states and suppression bounds",
      "answer": "California was the largest single interstate destination, with 8,477 named returns. That single-state ranking survives the reviewed suppression bounds.",
      "period": "Calendar-year filing transition 2022-2023",
      "limit": "Matched filing-address returns are not individual people. Class and amount use year-2 income. This earlier transition differs from the dividend comparison; aggregate AGI does not identify dividend income, tax motive or a causal mechanism. Region-only rows cannot be assigned to states.",
      "status": "reviewed",
      "children": [],
      "related": [
        "income-migration-classes"
      ],
      "findings": [
        {
          "id": "income-finding-destinations",
          "title": "A robust single-state result, a limited combined comparison",
          "text": "Nevada, Florida and Texas have 5,459 identified returns combined. Suppressed region-only rows make their combined comparison with California indeterminate.",
          "limits": [
            "45 named destination jurisdictions are shown. Region-only suppression buckets remain separate.",
            "The files do not establish disproportionate destination representation or tax motive."
          ],
          "source_url": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/countyoutflow2223.csv"
        }
      ],
      "plots": [
        {
          "id": "income-plot-king-destinations",
          "title": "King County interstate outflow returns",
          "caption": "All 45 named destination jurisdictions and four region-only suppression buckets. California remains the largest single destination under the reviewed bounds. Suppression prevents a definitive comparison with Nevada, Florida and Texas combined.",
          "alt": "Horizontal bars for all 45 named King County interstate destination jurisdictions and four separate region-only suppression buckets. California has 8,477 named returns.",
          "image_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/charts/king-destinations-penner-strategy.svg",
          "download_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/charts/king-destinations-penner-strategy.svg",
          "data_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/data/king-destinations.csv",
          "record_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-migration-destinations/index.html"
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "IRS county outflow, CY2022-2023",
          "url": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/countyoutflow2223.csv"
        },
        {
          "label": "IRS migration data and documentation, 2022-2023",
          "url": "https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data-2022-2023"
        }
      ],
      "record_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-migration-destinations/index.html",
      "as_of_date": "2026-09-21",
      "methods": "Aggregate named destination rows and bound compatible suppressed region totals without assigning them to particular states.",
      "lineage_ids": [
        "E-c1bfe70d8b0b"
      ],
      "publication_state": "prepared",
      "record_json_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-migration-destinations/record.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "income-newer-context",
      "question": "What does newer evidence show after 2023?",
      "hint": "Useful context, different measures",
      "answer": "Broader BEA and ACS measures provide newer context for Washington and King County. They do not determine whether the exact IRS dividend decline persisted or reversed.",
      "period": "Annual context through 2024/2025; quarterly context through 2026 Q1",
      "limit": "Different definitions and populations. BEA and ACS do not establish persistence or reversal of the exact IRS ordinary or qualified dividend series after TY2023.",
      "status": "reviewed",
      "children": [
        "income-state-context",
        "income-county-context",
        "income-household-context",
        "income-exact-persistence",
        "income-followup-purchasing-power"
      ],
      "related": [
        "income-historical-dividends"
      ],
      "findings": [],
      "plots": [
        {
          "id": "income-plot-current-context",
          "title": "Newer income context from BEA and ACS",
          "caption": "Four panels retain the reviewed measures and uncertainty. BEA state dividends use a broader definition; quarterly combined income is an annualized rate. ACS dollars use each survey year’s dollar basis, and the bars show 90% margins of error. None continues the exact IRS series.",
          "alt": "Four panels of Washington BEA annual dividends, quarterly combined dividends interest and rent, ACS combined-income estimates, and household counts. ACS estimates include 90 percent margins of error.",
          "image_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/charts/current-context-penner-strategy.svg",
          "download_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/charts/current-context-penner-strategy.svg",
          "data_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/data/current-context-series.csv",
          "record_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-newer-context/index.html"
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "BEA annual state personal income tables",
          "url": "https://apps.bea.gov/regional/zip/SAINC.zip"
        },
        {
          "label": "BEA quarterly state personal income tables",
          "url": "https://apps.bea.gov/regional/zip/SQINC.zip"
        },
        {
          "label": "BEA county personal income by major component",
          "url": "https://apps.bea.gov/regional/zip/CAINC4.zip"
        },
        {
          "label": "ACS B19064 table data",
          "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/1YRData/acsdt1y2024-b19064.dat"
        }
      ],
      "record_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-newer-context/index.html",
      "as_of_date": "2026-09-21",
      "methods": "Independent verification reproduced 37 current-context values or margins of error and checked the CSV inventory and chart labels. Acceptance covers calculations, units, vintages and chart qualifications, not the entire research method or post-TY2023 IRS direction.",
      "lineage_ids": [
        "N4-current-evidence"
      ],
      "publication_state": "prepared",
      "record_json_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-newer-context/record.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "income-state-context",
      "question": "Did broader statewide dividend and property income rise?",
      "hint": "BEA state measures",
      "answer": "Washington’s broader BEA personal dividend income rose from $65.72 billion in 2023 to $68.83 billion in 2024, up 4.73%.",
      "period": "Annual dividends: 2023-2024; quarterly combined measure: 2026 Q1",
      "limit": "Different definitions and populations. BEA and ACS do not establish persistence or reversal of the exact IRS ordinary or qualified dividend series after TY2023. BEA personal dividends include imputed pension-plan receipts. Quarterly values are seasonally adjusted annual rates, not quarterly flows.",
      "status": "reviewed",
      "children": [],
      "related": [
        "income-county-context",
        "income-household-context"
      ],
      "findings": [
        {
          "id": "income-finding-bea-state-dividends",
          "title": "The broader state dividend concept increased",
          "text": "Washington BEA personal dividend income increased 4.73% from 2023 to 2024.",
          "limits": [
            "No ordinary-versus-qualified split, AGI classes or return counts."
          ],
          "source_url": "https://apps.bea.gov/regional/zip/SAINC.zip"
        },
        {
          "id": "income-finding-bea-quarterly",
          "title": "Newer combined income remained higher",
          "text": "Washington dividends, interest and rent reached $158.85 billion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in 2026 Q1, 1.94% above 2025 Q1.",
          "limits": [
            "The measure combines three components and does not identify dividend-only movement.",
            "SAAR is an annualized rate, not money received during one quarter."
          ],
          "source_url": "https://apps.bea.gov/regional/zip/SQINC.zip"
        }
      ],
      "plots": [
        {
          "id": "income-plot-current-context",
          "title": "Newer income context from BEA and ACS",
          "caption": "Four panels retain the reviewed measures and uncertainty. BEA state dividends use a broader definition; quarterly combined income is an annualized rate. ACS dollars use each survey year’s dollar basis, and the bars show 90% margins of error. None continues the exact IRS series.",
          "alt": "Four panels of Washington BEA annual dividends, quarterly combined dividends interest and rent, ACS combined-income estimates, and household counts. ACS estimates include 90 percent margins of error.",
          "image_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/charts/current-context-penner-strategy.svg",
          "download_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/charts/current-context-penner-strategy.svg",
          "data_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/data/current-context-series.csv",
          "record_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-newer-context/index.html"
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "BEA annual state personal income tables",
          "url": "https://apps.bea.gov/regional/zip/SAINC.zip"
        },
        {
          "label": "BEA quarterly state personal income tables",
          "url": "https://apps.bea.gov/regional/zip/SQINC.zip"
        },
        {
          "label": "BEA County Personal Income Concepts and Methods",
          "url": "https://www.bea.gov/system/files/methodologies/BEA-County-Personal-Income-Concepts-and-Methods.pdf"
        }
      ],
      "record_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-state-context/index.html",
      "as_of_date": "2026-09-21",
      "methods": "BEA SAINC40 annual personal dividends and SQINC4 quarterly combined property income, using retained source vintages.",
      "lineage_ids": [
        "N4b-state-context"
      ],
      "publication_state": "prepared",
      "record_json_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-state-context/record.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "income-county-context",
      "question": "What changed in King County’s broader property income?",
      "hint": "Combined dividends, interest and rent",
      "answer": "King County BEA dividends, interest and rent reached $81.47 billion in 2024, up 5.62% from 2023.",
      "period": "Calendar years 2023 and 2024",
      "limit": "Different definitions and populations. BEA and ACS do not establish persistence or reversal of the exact IRS ordinary or qualified dividend series after TY2023. The county line combines dividends, interest and rent and cannot identify dividends alone.",
      "status": "reviewed",
      "children": [],
      "related": [
        "income-state-context",
        "income-household-context"
      ],
      "findings": [
        {
          "id": "income-finding-bea-county",
          "title": "Combined county property income increased",
          "text": "The reviewed BEA county combined-income measure increased 5.62% from 2023 to 2024.",
          "limits": [
            "Includes broader national-accounts concepts and imputed components. It is not an independent reproduction of published IRS geography."
          ],
          "source_url": "https://apps.bea.gov/regional/zip/CAINC4.zip"
        }
      ],
      "plots": [],
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "BEA county personal income by major component",
          "url": "https://apps.bea.gov/regional/zip/CAINC4.zip"
        },
        {
          "label": "BEA County Personal Income Concepts and Methods",
          "url": "https://www.bea.gov/system/files/methodologies/BEA-County-Personal-Income-Concepts-and-Methods.pdf"
        }
      ],
      "record_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-county-context/index.html",
      "as_of_date": "2026-09-21",
      "methods": "BEA CAINC4 county component line 46, using the retained source updated February 5, 2026. This county result is in the data and report; the four-panel context figure does not plot this county BEA series.",
      "lineage_ids": [
        "N4a-county-context"
      ],
      "publication_state": "prepared",
      "record_json_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-county-context/record.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "income-household-context",
      "question": "Do household surveys offer an independent check?",
      "hint": "A broader survey concept",
      "answer": "ACS 2024 combined interest, dividends or net rental income was $10.96 billion for King County and $23.25 billion for Washington, with 90% margins of error of $1.11 billion and $1.37 billion.",
      "period": "2023 and 2024 ACS one-year surveys",
      "limit": "Different definitions and populations. BEA and ACS do not establish persistence or reversal of the exact IRS ordinary or qualified dividend series after TY2023. These are household survey estimates. Dollar amounts use each survey year’s dollar basis; changes are not constant-dollar growth rates.",
      "status": "reviewed",
      "children": [],
      "related": [
        "income-county-context",
        "income-followup-purchasing-power"
      ],
      "findings": [
        {
          "id": "income-finding-acs-amounts",
          "title": "Broader survey point estimates were higher",
          "text": "The point estimates rose from $9.09 billion to $10.96 billion in King County and from $21.15 billion to $23.25 billion statewide.",
          "limits": [
            "The approximate 90% margins of error for the differences are $1.43 billion and $1.93 billion.",
            "Respective-year dollar changes are not real growth. The combined source does not identify which income component changed."
          ],
          "source_url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/1YRData/acsdt1y2024-b19064.dat"
        },
        {
          "id": "income-finding-acs-households",
          "title": "More households reported one of the three income types",
          "text": "King County household estimates rose from 274,641 (90% MOE 7,688) to 293,469 (MOE 7,348); Washington estimates rose from 726,806 (MOE 11,692) to 791,021 (MOE 13,101).",
          "limits": [
            "Counts are households, not taxpayers or tax returns."
          ],
          "source_url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/1YRData/acsdt1y2024-b19054.dat"
        }
      ],
      "plots": [
        {
          "id": "income-plot-current-context",
          "title": "Newer income context from BEA and ACS",
          "caption": "Four panels retain the reviewed measures and uncertainty. BEA state dividends use a broader definition; quarterly combined income is an annualized rate. ACS dollars use each survey year’s dollar basis, and the bars show 90% margins of error. None continues the exact IRS series.",
          "alt": "Four panels of Washington BEA annual dividends, quarterly combined dividends interest and rent, ACS combined-income estimates, and household counts. ACS estimates include 90 percent margins of error.",
          "image_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/charts/current-context-penner-strategy.svg",
          "download_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/charts/current-context-penner-strategy.svg",
          "data_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/data/current-context-series.csv",
          "record_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-newer-context/index.html"
        }
      ],
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "ACS B19064 table data",
          "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2023/table-based-SF/data/1YRData/acsdt1y2023-b19064.dat"
        },
        {
          "label": "ACS B19064 table data",
          "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/1YRData/acsdt1y2024-b19064.dat"
        },
        {
          "label": "ACS B19054 table data",
          "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2023/table-based-SF/data/1YRData/acsdt1y2023-b19054.dat"
        },
        {
          "label": "ACS B19054 table data",
          "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/1YRData/acsdt1y2024-b19054.dat"
        }
      ],
      "record_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-household-context/index.html",
      "as_of_date": "2026-09-21",
      "methods": "ACS B19064 amounts and B19054 household receipt counts. Published 90% margins of error are retained. Difference uncertainty uses the review’s independent-year square-root-sum-of-squares approximation.",
      "lineage_ids": [
        "N4c-survey-context"
      ],
      "publication_state": "prepared",
      "record_json_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-household-context/record.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "income-exact-persistence",
      "question": "Did the exact dividend decline continue after TY2023?",
      "hint": "Awaiting comparable evidence",
      "answer": "The retained same-measure IRS county series ends at TY2023. The September 21, 2026 review did not find a newer county ordinary or qualified dividend release that could answer this question.",
      "period": "Evidence checked September 21, 2026",
      "limit": "Different definitions and populations. BEA and ACS do not establish persistence or reversal of the exact IRS ordinary or qualified dividend series after TY2023.",
      "status": "unanswered",
      "children": [],
      "related": [
        "income-historical-dividends",
        "income-newer-context"
      ],
      "findings": [],
      "plots": [],
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "IRS SOI County Data landing page",
          "url": "https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-county-data"
        },
        {
          "label": "IRS SOI Historic Table 2 landing page",
          "url": "https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-historic-table-2"
        }
      ],
      "record_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-exact-persistence/index.html",
      "as_of_date": "2026-09-21",
      "methods": "Dated review of IRS source availability. Revisit only when a comparable release becomes available and its definitions have been checked.",
      "lineage_ids": [
        "N2-4fa060afd874",
        "native-1-future-irs-county"
      ],
      "publication_state": "prepared",
      "record_json_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-exact-persistence/record.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "income-followup-accounting",
      "question": "Does matched-category accounting explain the dividend divergence?",
      "hint": "Proposed follow-up",
      "answer": "First inventory the existing work, then fill only missing comparisons with the same geography, year and AGI class. This could resolve an apparent difference without yielding a causal explanation.",
      "period": "Proposed; not running",
      "limit": "No result has been established. Qualified dividends are part of ordinary dividends, and categories or income classes cannot be mixed to claim an offset.",
      "status": "proposed",
      "children": [],
      "related": [
        "income-ordinary-counts"
      ],
      "findings": [],
      "plots": [],
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "IRS SOI County Data landing page",
          "url": "https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-county-data"
        }
      ],
      "record_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-followup-accounting/index.html",
      "as_of_date": "2026-09-21",
      "methods": "Proposed evidence path: review existing tables and category definitions before deciding whether additional calculations are needed.",
      "lineage_ids": [
        "website-handoff-followup-1"
      ],
      "publication_state": "prepared",
      "record_json_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-followup-accounting/record.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "income-followup-migration",
      "question": "Is the income-specific migration imbalance persistent?",
      "hint": "Proposed follow-up",
      "answer": "Check older series and the IRS matching-method break before making a trend comparison. A future release should be used only after publication and definition checks.",
      "period": "Proposed; not running",
      "limit": "Matched filing-address returns are not individual people. Class and amount use year-2 income. This earlier transition differs from the dividend comparison; aggregate AGI does not identify dividend income, tax motive or a causal mechanism. As of September 21, 2026, CY2023-2024 migration data were unpublished but tentatively scheduled for November 20, 2026.",
      "status": "proposed",
      "children": [],
      "related": [
        "income-migration-classes"
      ],
      "findings": [],
      "plots": [],
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "IRS migration data and documentation, 2022-2023",
          "url": "https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data-2022-2023"
        },
        {
          "label": "IRS annual release calendar",
          "url": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/soi-public-release-list.xlsx"
        }
      ],
      "record_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-followup-migration/index.html",
      "as_of_date": "2026-09-21",
      "methods": "Proposed evidence path: inventory comparable earlier migration files and matching definitions. A tentative schedule is not evidence that a new file has appeared.",
      "lineage_ids": [
        "website-handoff-followup-2",
        "E-577144183616"
      ],
      "publication_state": "prepared",
      "record_json_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-followup-migration/record.json"
    },
    {
      "id": "income-followup-purchasing-power",
      "question": "Where does income growth diverge from typical household purchasing power?",
      "hint": "Proposed, distinct question",
      "answer": "An answer needs population, inflation and household-distribution evidence. Aggregate income alone cannot establish how a typical household is doing.",
      "period": "Proposed; not running",
      "limit": "This is a separate question, not a demonstrated consequence of the dividend decline.",
      "status": "proposed",
      "children": [],
      "related": [
        "income-household-context"
      ],
      "findings": [],
      "plots": [],
      "sources": [
        {
          "label": "ACS B19064 table data",
          "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/1YRData/acsdt1y2024-b19064.dat"
        },
        {
          "label": "ACS B19054 table data",
          "url": "https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/summary_file/2024/table-based-SF/data/1YRData/acsdt1y2024-b19054.dat"
        }
      ],
      "record_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-followup-purchasing-power/index.html",
      "as_of_date": "2026-09-21",
      "methods": "Proposed evidence path: review existing public research and obtainable population, inflation and distribution measures before starting an investigation.",
      "lineage_ids": [
        "website-handoff-followup-3"
      ],
      "publication_state": "prepared",
      "record_json_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-followup-purchasing-power/record.json"
    }
  ]
}