Is the income-specific migration imbalance persistent?

Proposed; not running

Check older series and the IRS matching-method break before making a trend comparison. A future release should be used only after publication and definition checks.

Matched filing-address returns are not individual people. Class and amount use year-2 income. This earlier transition differs from the dividend comparison; aggregate AGI does not identify dividend income, tax motive or a causal mechanism. As of September 21, 2026, CY2023-2024 migration data were unpublished but tentatively scheduled for November 20, 2026.

Method and review scope

Proposed evidence path: inventory comparable earlier migration files and matching definitions. A tentative schedule is not evidence that a new file has appeared.

Sources

• IRS migration data and documentation, 2022-2023
• IRS annual release calendar

Source vintages, retrieval dates and hashes

Related questions

• Which income groups had more outgoing than incoming returns?

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