{
  "id": "income-migration-classes",
  "question": "Which income groups had more outgoing than incoming returns?",
  "hint": "Classified by year-2 AGI",
  "answer": "The $200,000-plus class had 2,057 fewer inflow than outflow returns. It was the only one of the seven published classes with a negative balance.",
  "period": "Calendar-year filing transition 2022-2023",
  "limit": "Matched filing-address returns are not individual people. Class and amount use year-2 income. This earlier transition differs from the dividend comparison; aggregate AGI does not identify dividend income, tax motive or a causal mechanism.",
  "status": "reviewed",
  "children": [],
  "related": [
    "income-migration-destinations",
    "income-followup-migration"
  ],
  "findings": [
    {
      "id": "income-finding-agi-class-balance",
      "title": "The highest published class had a negative balance",
      "text": "The $200,000-plus class had 10,461 inflow and 12,518 outflow returns. Inflow-group year-2 AGI was $1.185494 billion below outflow-group year-2 AGI.",
      "limits": [
        "Year-2 AGI is income on the final return. This is not a pre-move Washington cohort or money shown to have left the state.",
        "Matched filing-address returns are not individual people. Class and amount use year-2 income. This earlier transition differs from the dividend comparison; aggregate AGI does not identify dividend income, tax motive or a causal mechanism."
      ],
      "source_url": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/2223inmigall.csv"
    }
  ],
  "plots": [
    {
      "id": "income-plot-wa-migration",
      "title": "Inflow minus outflow groups’ year-2 AGI",
      "caption": "Seven Washington AGI classes, assigned using year-2 income. The $200,000-plus class has a negative balance. This compares groups and does not identify a pre-move cohort or dollars shown to have left Washington.",
      "alt": "Seven horizontal bars of inflow-group minus outflow-group year-2 AGI. The six lower classes are nonnegative; the $200,000-plus class is negative.",
      "image_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/charts/wa-year2-agi-penner-strategy.svg",
      "download_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/charts/wa-year2-agi-penner-strategy.svg",
      "data_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/data/wa-year2-agi.csv",
      "record_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-migration-classes/index.html"
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "IRS Gross Migration File, CY2022-2023",
      "url": "https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-soi/2223inmigall.csv"
    },
    {
      "label": "IRS migration data and documentation, 2022-2023",
      "url": "https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data-2022-2023"
    }
  ],
  "record_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-migration-classes/index.html",
  "as_of_date": "2026-09-21",
  "methods": "Subtract outflow-group values from inflow-group values within each published year-2 AGI class. The chart and CSV retain all seven classes.",
  "lineage_ids": [
    "E-638c241b8d8b"
  ],
  "publication_state": "prepared",
  "record_json_url": "/research/washington-income/2026-09-21/nodes/income-migration-classes/record.json"
}