Phil Fortunato received 54.30% of the two-candidate vote, Drew Stokesbary 57.91% and Joshua Penner 56.07%.
Washington’s 31st Legislative District · August 2026 primary · Updated September 11, 2026
The district covers parts of King and Pierce counties. It elects one state senator and two state representatives, identified as House Position 1 and Position 2. Find your legislative district.
Percentages count votes for the two named candidates in each race. Read the first investigation for the vote counts and sources.
The historical adjustment fits a straight line between August and November vote shares in past elections. Each test leaves one election year out and predicts it from the other years.
The tested formula scored 2.17 percentage points of prediction error, compared with 2.15 for using August’s shares, when the historical comparison consistently followed Republican candidates. The formula did not improve on that simpler estimate in this test.
A starting estimate carries August’s percentage forward unchanged. It gives a number to test against November’s result. It does not establish who will win or the chance of winning.
| Race | Candidate | Party preference | Votes | Two-candidate total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State Senator | Tamara Stramel (D) | Prefers Democratic Party | 15,638 | 34,221 | 45.70% |
| State Senator | Phil Fortunato (R) | Prefers Republican Party | 18,583 | 34,221 | 54.30% |
| State Representative Pos. 1 | Drew Stokesbary (R) | Prefers Republican Party | 19,674 | 33,973 | 57.91% |
| State Representative Pos. 1 | Stephen Szczurko-Walton (D) | Prefers Democratic Party | 14,299 | 33,973 | 42.09% |
| State Representative Pos. 2 | John Bielka (D) | Prefers Democrat Party | 14,915 | 33,954 | 43.93% |
| State Representative Pos. 2 | Joshua Penner (R) | Prefers Republican Party | 19,039 | 33,954 | 56.07% |
Vote counts (CSV) · Vote-count and historical-comparison code
| Reference period | Races | Mean change | 5th percentile | 95th percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014–2024 | 78 | -0.36 | -4.82 | +3.05 |
| 2022 and 2024 | 19 | -0.02 | -1.47 | +1.30 |
The recent sample contains 19 races across two election years. These are historical percentiles, not probability bounds for November 2026.
Download all 78 races and the R reproduction script · Reference races (CSV) · Mean Republican-share change by year (CSV)
| Year | Office | Candidate followed | August share | November share | Change (points) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | House 2 | Christopher Hurst | 54.64% | 51.60% | -3.04 |
| 2016 | House 1 | Drew Stokesbary (R) | 73.98% | 71.59% | -2.39 |
| 2018 | House 1 | Drew Stokesbary (R) | 56.33% | 58.92% | +2.59 |
| 2024 | House 1 | Drew Stokesbary (R) | 63.86% | 63.69% | -0.17 |
Six candidates, county totals and the test that removed the formula’s apparent advantage.
The 78-race sample, its 19 recent races and all the calculations behind the ranges.
Candidate names and party preferences in the saved state record.
Archived first public assessment, September 11. Its research-run identifier is Edition 8. Earlier research runs were internal. The current page adds the vote-count table, sample data and calculation links.
Silphium is Penner Strategy’s research system. These studies use AI-assisted analysis and code-generated calculations and charts. The linked review records describe the calculation checks and remaining limitations.